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Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will go head-to-head on Sunday for the 10th time in their career, including the playoffs, and the regular-season and playoff results couldn't be much more opposite. Allen and the Buffalo Bills are 4-1 against Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs during the regular season, but Allen in winless in four games against Mahomes during the playoffs. The Bills and Chiefs go head-to-head in Buffalo in Week 9 on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The SportsLine model projects Buffalo's regular-season dominance over Kansas City to continue, backing the Bills at +110 odds to win as a part of its best bets to build a Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay at FanDuel. 

The Bills are coming off a 40-9 win over the Panthers last week to improve to 5-2. The Chiefs defeated the Commanders, 28-7, on Monday Night Football last week to improve to 5-3. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Week 9 NFL odds at FanDuel, with an over/under set at 52.5 points. The model also likes the Over, projecting 54 combined points for Bills vs. Chiefs,  as a part of its best bets to build a Bills vs. Chiefs same-game parlay at FanDuel. To provide some variance and value alongside Buffalo winning, the model likes Rashee Rice's value to score a touchdown, and adding this to your Chiefs vs. Bills SGP at FanDuel can bring a payout of +621 odds.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 9 on a sizzling 45-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Best Bills vs. Chiefs SGP at FanDuel (odds subject to change): 

  • Bills money line
  • Over 52.5 total points
  • Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer

Combining the model's three picks into a Chiefs vs. Bills SGP at FanDuel Sportsbook would result in a payout of +621 (risk $100 to win $621):

Bills to win

The Chiefs defeated the Bills, 32-29, at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game last season, but when they met during the regular season in Buffalo, the Bills won, 30-21. Josh Allen threw for 262 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 55 yards and a score in that regular-season victory, while Buffalo intercepted Patrick Mahomes twice. Buffalo held Kansas City to 259 total yards in that victory while totaling 366 yards itself. Allen is 4-1 during the regular season against Mahomes, and Buffalo is 11-1 at home since the beginning of last season. The model expects Allen's success over Mahomes in the regular season to continue on Sunday, projecting the Bills to win in 53% of simulations. 

Over 52.5 total points

When Allen and Mahomes go head-to-head, the points usually follow. Six of their last eight contests have featured at least 50 points scored, while reaching 53 points in four of those contests. They combined for 61 points in their AFC Championship Game last season to go Over this number, with Allen and Mahomes combining for five passing or rushing touchdowns. The Bills have the No. 4 scoring offense (29.6 points per game) this season, while the Chiefs are seventh at 26.8 ppg. With Rashee Rice back at receiver for Kansas City, the Chiefs are averaging 29.5 ppg over their last two games. Kansas City has scored at least 28 points in five straight games and Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in five of seven games this season. The model expects big plays on both sides for each offense to keep pace with one another, projecting the Over to hit in 51% of simulations.

Rashee Rice to score a touchdown

The Chiefs have clearly made it a priority to reintroduce Rice to the offense in a featured way following his six-game suspension to open the year, leading the team in receptions and targets in each of his first two games back. Rice has 16 receptions on 19 targets with 135 yards and three touchdowns over his first two contests. He's scored at least one touchdown in back-to-back games, and the model likes the value of that continuing on Sunday. Rice only played four games last year due to injury, so since the beginning of last season, he's scored at least one touchdown in four of six games. Mahomes has thrown three passing touchdowns in each of his last three contests, with Rice as his top option in each of the last two contests, as they've been a top duo in the league since Rice's return.