Chiefs vs. Bills picks, odds, line, start time: NFL Week 9 predictions from expert on a 11-3 roll

Teams looking to fight their way back to the top of their respective divisions meet when the nine-time defending AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the five-time defending AFC East champion Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Kansas City is coming off a 28-7 win over the Washington Commanders on Monday, while Buffalo defeated the Carolina Panthers 40-9 last Sunday. The Chiefs (5-3), who have won three in a row, are 1-2 on the road this season. The Bills (5-2), who have lost two of three, are 3-1 on their home field.

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Buffalo leads the all-time series 30-26-1, including wins in three of the last five meetings. Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over-under for total points scored is 52.5. Kansas City is at -136 on the money line. Before making any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine expert, Josh Nagel, has to say. 

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Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports handicapping industry for more than 20 years. SportsLine's assistant managing editor has covered the wagering industry on a variety of platforms, and has won numerous sports handicapping contests. He's an incredible 11-3-1 (+980) on his last 15 Buffalo Bills picks. Anyone who has followed him could be way up.

Now, Nagel has zoned in on Chiefs vs. Bills. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL betting lines and NFL odds for Bills vs. Chiefs:

Why the Chiefs can cover

Veteran quarterback Patrick Mahomes continues to play at an MVP-type level. He leads the Chiefs' passing attack, completing 189 of 282 passes (67%) for 2,099 yards and 17 touchdowns with just four interceptions and a rating of 103.1. He is also second on the team in rushing, carrying 46 times for 280 yards (6.1 average) and four touchdowns. In the win over Washington, he completed 25 of 34 passes (73.5%) for 299 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions. One of those picks bounced off the hands of his receiver.

Tight end Travis Kelce is once again one of Mahomes' favorite targets. In eight games, Kelce leads the Chiefs with 37 receptions for 474 yards and three touchdowns. He has five explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 44. He also has 260 yards after the catch and 25 first-down conversions. In the win over the Commanders, he caught six passes for 99 yards and one touchdown. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Bills can cover

Last year's MVP, quarterback Josh Allen, leads the Buffalo attack. In seven games, he has completed 134 of 197 passes (68%) for 1,560 yards and 12 touchdowns with four interceptions and a 103.6 rating. Allen is also a dual threat, and is second on the team in rushing with 261 yards and five touchdowns on 49 carries (5.3 average). In last week's win over the Panthers, he completed 12 of 19 passes for 163 yards and one touchdown. He also rushed for two other scores. Allen has thrown two or more touchdown passes in five of seven games this season.

Powering the rushing attack is running back James Cook III. In seven games, he has carried 126 times for 753 yards (6.0 average) and seven touchdowns. He has had five explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 64 with 38 first-down conversions. He tore up the Carolina defense in Week 8, carrying 19 times for 216 yards (11.4 average) and two touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make Chiefs vs. Bills picks

For Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup, Nagel is leaning over the total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who covers in Chiefs vs. Bills and what critical x-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you need to jump, all from the expert who returned $980 to $100 players over his last 15 Buffalo Bills picks, and find out.