Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction, odds: Week 15 'Thursday Night Football' picks by proven model

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to get back on track when they take on the Atlanta Falcons in a key NFC South matchup on 'Thursday Night Football.' Atlanta is coming off a 37-9 loss at Seattle on Sunday, while Tampa Bay dropped a 24-20 decision to the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons (4-9), who have lost seven of their last eight games, are 2-5 on the road this season. The Buccaneers (7-6), who have lost five of their last seven, are 3-3 on their home field.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 32-32. Tampa Bay earned a 23-20 win in their last meeting on Sept. 7. The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook in the latest Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Bucs vs. Falcons picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins, on picks like Baker Mayfield going Over 217.5 passing yards. Bet it at DraftKings right here:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 15 on a 50-35 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Buccaneers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Bucs vs. Falcons:

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield powers the Tampa Bay offense. In 13 games this season, he has completed 61.6% of his passes for 2,722 yards and 20 touchdowns with six interceptions and a 90.6 rating. He has also rushed 43 times for 285 yards (6.6 average) and one touchdown. In the first meeting against the Falcons on Sept. 7, he completed 17 of 32 passes for 167 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing five times for 39 yards.

His top target has been rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. In 13 games, he has 54 receptions for 806 yards (14.9 average) and six touchdowns. In the season-opening win at Atlanta, he caught four passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. In a 28-23 loss to the New England Patriots on Nov. 9, he had six receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Bet Mayfield to go Over 19.5 completions at DraftKings:

Why the Falcons can cover

With Michael Penix Jr. (knee) out for the season, veteran Kirk Cousins has taken over at quarterback. In six games, he has completed 84 of 138 passes (60.9%) for 845 yards and three touchdowns. In a 24-10 win at New Orleans on Nov. 23, he completed 16 of 23 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. In a 27-24 loss to the New York Jets on Nov. 30, he completed 21 of 33 passes for 234 yards and one touchdown.

Powering the Atlanta rushing attack is third-year veteran running back Bijan Robinson. In 13 games, he has carried 215 times for 1,081 yards (5.0 average) and five touchdowns. He has five explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 81, with 48 first-down conversions. He also has 56 receptions for 602 yards (10.8 average) and two touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Bet Robinson to go Over 73.5 rushing yards at DraftKings:

How to make Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 48 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Falcons, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Buccaneers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.