After going 4-13 in Bill Belichick's final season in 2023 and repeating that record in Jerod Mayo's only season as head coach, a Patriots team led by Mike Vrabel pulled off one of the biggest turnarounds in recent history, adding 10 wins to their record while moving from -128 to +170 in point differential. The defending AFC champions will now look for similar success while playing a tougher schedule, and the road to a repeat starts with better protection in front of Drake Maye after the MVP candidate was battered by the elite Seahawks defense during the Super Bowl.
We're taking a look at everything you need to know before making New England Patriots futures bets below, including odds, trends, 2026 schedule, offseason changes and more before sharing our preseason betting strategy for the team. Odds are via DraftKings.
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New England Patriots 2026 odds
| Odds to … | June 1 | Feb |
|---|---|---|
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (-150) | 9.5 (-140) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (+125) | 9.5 (+115) |
| Miss playoffs | +175 | |
| Make playoffs | -215 | |
| Win AFC East | +130 | |
| Win AFC | +800 | |
| Win Super Bowl | +1600 | +1300 |
The Patriots are -150 to both go Over 9.5 wins and Under 10.5 wins as of June 1, and they sit well behind the Bills (-130) in divisional odds despite Buffalo's coaching change and New England having the edge last season. The Patriots will have their shortest odds to win the Super Bowl in 2026 since Tom Brady left town.
New England Patriots futures trends
| Year | Super Bowl odds | Win total | Result | Actual wins | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +8000 | 8.5 | Over | 14 | L, Super Bowl |
| 2024 | +30000 | 4.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, AFC East |
| 2023 | +6000 | 7.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, AFC East |
| 2022 | +4200 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 3rd, AFC East |
| 2021 | +3000 | 9.5 | Over | 10 | 2nd, AFC East |
A key trend to note for the Patriots in particular involves Super Bowl losers. Since the Patriots followed up their loss to the Eagles with a win over the Rams in Super Bowl 53 the following year, the seven Super Bowl losers have gone Over the win total the following season only once (Bengals in 2022), while three of the seven teams have won only six games, including each of the past two Super Bowl losers (Chiefs last year, 49ers the year before).
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New England Patriots 2025 season review
| Record | Py Wins | Yds/play (Rk) | Opp y/p (Rk) | DVOA (Rk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | 12.46 | 6.18 (2) | 5.16 (12) | 10.5 (9) |
The Patriots' offensive success came largely from the passing attack, which finished tops in the league in yards per play by a significant margin and more than a full yard per play better than the fourth-ranked Bills. While the defense was well-balanced in defending the run and the pass, it ranked 30th in red-zone conversion rate and last in the league in goal-to-go situations, giving Mike Vrabel a key focus for improvement heading into 2026.
New England Patriots 2026 offseason review
| Lost | Added | Drafted | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Behren Morton (7) | ||
| RB | Antonio Gibson, Deneric Prince | Reggie Gilliam (FB) | Jam Miller (7) |
| WR | Stefon Diggs, Trent Sherfield | Romeo Doubs | |
| TE | Austin Hooper | Julian Hill | Eli Raridon (3) |
| OL | Garrett Bradbury, Vederian Lowe, Thayer Munford, Yasir Durant | Alijah Vera-Tucker, James Hudson | Caleb Lomu (1), Dametrious Crownover (6) |
| DL | Khyiris Tonga, Jaquelin Roy, Isaiah Iton | ||
| EDGE | K'Lavon Chaisson, Anfernee Jennings | Dre'Mont Jones, Jesse Luketa | Gabe Jacas (2), Quintayvious Hutchins (7) |
| LB | Jahlani Tavai, Jack Gibbens, Marte Mapu | K.J. Britt | Namdi Obiazor (6) |
| CB | Alex Austin | Kindle Vildor | Karon Prunty (5) |
| S | Jaylinn Hawkins | Kevin Byard, Mike Brown | |
| STAFF |
While finding a way to replace Stefon Diggs has been one focus of the offseason, perhaps nothing was more important than protecting Maye better up front. Vera-Tucker is a big-name addition on the interior, but his career has largely been defined by injury thus far, as he played 43 of 68 possible games during his four years with the Jets. The other key addition was made in the draft by trading up for tackle Caleb Lomu.
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New England Patriots 2026 schedule
| Week | Opp | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @SEA | Wed |
| 2 | PIT | |
| 3 | @JAC | |
| 4 | @BUF | |
| 5 | LV | |
| 6 | NYJ | |
| 7 | @CHI | Thu |
| 8 | @MIA | |
| 9 | GB | |
| 10 | @DET | Munich |
| 11 | bye | |
| 12 | @LAC | |
| 13 | BUF | |
| 14 | MIN | Thu |
| 15 | @KC | Mon |
| 16 | @NYJ | |
| 17 | DEN | |
| 18 | MIA |
With the NFL moving to a Wednesday opener to accommodate the Australia game on Thursday, the Patriots will kick off their season with a brutal Super Bowl rematch a day early. That's followed by their two games against other AFC division winners and then a trip to Buffalo, but the schedule eases up from there. That includes getting one of their road games moved to a neutral site in Munich, Germany.
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New England Patriots futures picks
- Miss the playoffs (+175)
With the Patriots just +125 to win nine or fewer games, these miss playoff odds look to be a pretty good value unless you're projecting a collapse from the Bills under their new regime. The schedule is going to be tougher for the Patriots this season, and there are enough competitive teams in the other AFC divisions that I don't think you can just write the East in for two playoff spots. I'd either look this way or to the Patriots winning the division at +130 if I wanted to make a positive play.
