2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds: Ty Simpson remains favorite over Fernando Mendoza after Week 10 games

It's rare to see a college football weekend without much chaos, and Week 10 delivered plenty of it with Georgia Tech and Miami being upset. However, it's surprising to see Saturday's results having no impact on the futures market for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Here's a look at how DraftKings Sportsbook has priced the market for the top pick in April's draft.

No. 1 pick odds for 2026 NFL Draft (via DraftKings)

• Ty Simpson, Alabama +220 (was +220)
• Fernando Mendoza, Indiana +290 (was +290)
• LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina +600 (was +600)
• Dante Moore, Oregon +750 (was +750)
• Rueben Bain Jr., Miami +800 (was +800)
• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU +2000 (was +2000)
• Jayden Maiava, USC +2500 (was +2500)
• Carson Beck, Miami +2500 (was +2500)
• John Mateer, Oklahoma +3000 (was +3000)
• Arch Manning, Texas +4000 (was +4000)

Bain Jr.'s Hurricanes dropped a game in overtime to SMU and in theory, that should drop his stock further. However, Bain's stock was already falling after a lackluster showing against Louisville a few weeks ago. He's struggling to produce big games of late. Manning had a great game against Vanderbilt with 328 yards and three scores through the air, but one big performance won't eliminate a lot of his struggles. It'll take more results for Manning to go back up the odds ladder here.

Simpson and Mendoza will have some major games coming up. The Alabama Crimson Tide play LSU and Oklahoma over the next two weeks, the latter of which will have significant ramifications in the College Football Playoff. If Simpson can ace these games, he'll see his stock rise even further. Mendoza should be able to lead the Hoosiers past Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue but there's a showdown looming with Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. If he can deliver a win there, he should overtake Simpson as the favorite to go No. 1.