Ty Simpson went from backup to breakout -- now the Alabama QB is climbing 2026 NFL Draft boards

As if this year's quarterback class wasn't enough of a jumbled mess, another first-year starter has been making waves in the scouting community through the first six weeks of the season. So much so that the Shrine Bowl scouting staff already has Alabama's Ty Simpson with a comparable grade to more established starters like Garrett Nussmeier and Fernando Mendoza (although Shrine Bowl grades are used more for bucketing players into potential roles and are less granular than NFL team grades).

From a numbers standpoint, it's not hard to see why. His 9.4 yards per attempt ranks 10th in the country, while his 13 touchdown passes rank eighth. Those numbers also came against the third-hardest schedule in college football, according to ESPN -- even with Simpson and the rest of the Crimson Tide laying an egg against Florida State in Week 1. Since that game, I'd argue no quarterback has played better the past five weeks than Simpson.

Unlike other breakout stars such as Oregon's Dante Moore or Oklahoma's John Mateer, Simpson's film takes a little longer to see why he's getting scouts' attention. That's because between his arm, mobility and frame -- there isn't a single trait I'd describe as "above-average" by NFL standards. I don't want you to think he's poor in any of those categories, but college football is littered with quarterbacks who can match Simpson's physical profile.

It's not until you see him layer the football over second-level defenders, lead receivers away from coverage consistently and attack zones with anticipation -- that's when you start to understand that Simpson has the goods. It was the Wisconsin tape in Week 3 where he first caught my eye. In that game, he went 24-for-29 passing for 382 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Of the five times the ball hit the ground, two were because of drops.

From a mechanical, timing and decision-making perspective, it was how an NFL-ready quarterback is supposed to look. That's special for the third start of someone's career. If I had to point to the one thing I've consistently seen on tape that makes Simpson so good, it's knowing how to attack space in defenses. At quarterback, you're not always throwing routes as they're drawn up on paper. Sometimes you have to stop a receiver with your ball placement or lead them elsewhere to avoid defenders. You saw that on numerous occasions last week against Vanderbilt.

College Football QB Power Rankings: Alabama's Ty Simpson takes No. 1, Nico Iamaleava returns to top 50

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Simpson is an intriguing prospect for a lot of reasons, but one thing working against him is his age. He's older than you'd like for a prospect getting their first opportunity, as he'll turn 23 years old in December. With on-field experience being at a premium for evaluators, he'll face an interesting decision. Come back to school and turn 25 as a rookie, or make the leap with one season as a starter under his belt.

While the answer to that question will become clearer as the season wears on, it's important to remember why experience matters. It's because mastery matters when put in an unfamiliar situation. Mastering the minutiae of the quarterback position -- footwork, mechanics, protections, eye discipline and more -- before you get to the league is a must. There's so much else that's heaped onto your plate in the league as a young quarterback that if you're thinking about your ball-handling, you won't process the rest of the game at the speed you need to. 

With Simpson, I'm not too worried about the minutiae given what he's already put on tape. Yes, there's no replicating reps when it comes to consistently reading coverages and blitzes, but Simpson has clearly put in the work when it comes to what he could control as a backup for three years.

On top of simply continuing the level of play we've seen from Simpson through the rigors of an SEC schedule, the one thing I want to see more of from the Alabama signal-caller is aggressiveness downfield. He certainly has the receivers to attack deep and is accurate on such throws, but to date, he ranks 83rd in deep attempts in all of college football, with 17 (10 completions). In Michael Penix Jr.'s final season with Kalen DeBoer at Washington in 2023, he ranked first with 117. Penix's average depth of target was 10.7 compared to Simpson's 8.1. 

Add in some aggressiveness to Simpson's already efficient play, and the NFL will come calling early.

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds

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Ty Simpson NFL Draft profile

Ty Simpson

BAMA • QB • #15

6-2, 208 | 22 years old | Redshirt junior

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• CBS prospect ranking: No. 4 QB (37th overall)

Ty Simpson college stats

Ty Simpson 247Sports profile

High school: Westview (Martin, Tennessee)
Class: 2022
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (98)

National: 29 | QB: 4 | Tennessee: 2

Check out Ty Simpson's full 247Sports profile.