Renner's QB scouting series for NFL Draft: Drew Allar looks like a first-round pick, but can he play like one?

There's no more polarizing player in the NFL draft every year than the memetic "looks good in shorts" quarterbacks. You know the ones I'm talking about. They're 6-foot-5, 230 pounds with laser arms and statistical profiles that would get you benched in a Mike Leach offense (RIP).

I'll get out ahead of things and let you know that quarterback will be Penn State's Drew Allar next spring. He's been whispered about in scouting circles ever since Week 1 of his freshman year when he subbed in for a banged-up Sean Clifford coming out of halftime against Purdue and made this throw (plus a young Tyler Warren sighting):

Those whispers grew to a roar midway through last season when the big arm, nimble feet and huge frame started putting up the stats to match. Under the guide of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki through Penn State's first 11 games, Allar's yards per attempt jumped from 6.7 the previous fall to 9.6 -- a top 5 figure in college football at the time. He was putting his big arm to use by being far more aggressive attacking downfield. With a Big Ten title game appearance and playoff opportunity looming, Allar could have easily played his way into a top 10 draft selection.

That obviously did not happen. In the final five games of the season, Allar only completed more than 60% of his passes once while only cracking the 200-yard mark once as well. Even though he stated his intention to stay in school before the playoff, Allar's egregious game-losing interception in the College Football Playoff semifinals sealed his return to Penn State this fall.

So why exactly is Allar still being discussed as a potential top 5 pick in next year's draft after a disastrous end to last season? The answer to that is the same reason why the NFL loves the "looks good in shorts" quarterbacks: tools give you room for error in the NFL. 

When you are the same size as defensive ends trying to tackle you, it's easier to evade pressure and make plays in tight pockets. When you have arm talent that can stretch 60 yards past the line of scrimmage, the bigger windows that exist down the field become more easily accessible. And when you have nimble feet in the pocket, extending broken plays becomes a weapon defenses have to respect.

All of that would be for naught if Allar didn't at least show flashes of brilliance, and even in his ugly games the plays are still there. The best term I'd use to describe him at the moment is that he's a "gamer". Allar showed on a weekly basis that if he has to go get a bucket, he can get creative. There are so many high-level third- or fourth-down conversions from his tape last season.

A lot of quarterbacks will look good on early-down play-action passes or when consistently playing ahead of the chains, but it's only the special ones in the NFL who can make plays on third-and-longs when everyone in the stadium knows a pass is coming.

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So how exactly does Allar make that leap into special territory, starting with Saturday's season opener against Nevada on CBS (stream on Paramount+)?

It's going to start with consistent mechanics to hone in his accuracy. Allar underwent a mechanical overhaul of his motion at the end of his high school career. He was a big-time prep baseball pitcher and as such had an over-the-top motion with a long stride that works coming off a baseball mound. Even still, you will see him get high with his arm and throw far more wobbly balls than you'd like from a top quarterback prospect. There's also a reason you don't see big strides anymore around the NFL. Modern kinesthetic research has found a more centered "rotational" move to be far more effective at generating power and being more consistently accurate than the "linear" stride move found commonly in baseball.

If you want a good idea of what that change looks like, go watch early career Josh Allen at Wyoming vs. now. Back then, Allen's left foot used to step towards the target when he was in the pocket; now it stays in place. It's a change he started making when he was at Wyoming, but famously took until year three for his accuracy to really make a huge leap (from 58.2% completion in year two to 68.4% in year three). 

Is a similar light bulb going to turn on for Allar? It's impossible to say, but it's obvious from watching his training videos this offseason that his focus is on honing that rotational movement.

While Allar is not quite the athlete Allen is (who is?), you'd be silly to write him off just yet. Allar is a big-time physical talent and all-around athlete. Those are the kinds of quarterbacks who are going to get a lot of leeway from NFL evaluators. 

Because if Allar hits ... he'll hit big.

Think Allar will have a massive 2025 season and end up being the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft? Head on over to FanDuel Sportsbook, where Allar is being offered at +650 ($10 to win $65).

Drew Allar NFL Draft profile

Drew Allar

PSU • QB • #15

6-5, 235 | 21 year old | Senior

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NFL comparison: Carson Wentz

Both Allar and Wentz have the kind of frames and arms that will tantalize in spurts. But both also have the kind of accuracy that will make fans pull their hair out. Like Wentz, Allar will make plays with his legs. Also like Wentz, it's not going to be his main calling card. The hope is that as young as Allar is, he can outgrow some of his deficiencies in the way that injuries never quite let Wentz do.

Accolades

• Career: Allar set an FBS record by starting his career with 311 passing attempts without an interception.
• Career: Since 1956, Allar is one of two FBS quarterbacks -- Baylor's Bryce Petty (2011-14) is the other -- with 800-plus pass attempts, 50-plus touchdown passes and 10 or less interceptions in his career
• Career: Allar is first in program history in completion percentage (62.9) and interception percentage (1.19), third in touchdown passes (53), fifth in completions (530) and sixth in passing yards (6,302) and passing attempts (843).
• 2024: Allar finished second in Penn State history in a single season in completion percentage (66.5), third in passing efficiency (153.3), third in passing yardage (3,327), fourth in completions (262) and tied for fourth in touchdown passes (24).
• 2023-24: Allar is a two-time honorable mention All-Big Ten honoree.
• 2023: Allar and Tennessee's Hendon Hooker (2022) are the only FBS quarterbacks ever to throw 25-plus touchdown passes and two or fewer interceptions in a season.

Strengths

• Jumbo frame with arm to match.
• Light feet. Easy mover in pocket with good feel for pressure.
• Aggressive over the middle of the field and knows how to anticipate windows.

Weaknesses

• Accuracy is spotty. Lot of ugly wobblers.
• Collapsed down the stretch. Worst game was on the biggest stage.
• Struggles on the move. Good athlete, but shaky off-platform.

What scouts are saying about Drew Allar

"While some mock drafts still have Allar as a 2026 first-round pick, most scouts seem to feel like Allar still has a lot to prove before he's truly in position to be selected in the first round. The more consistent feedback I've gotten for Allar is more in the fringe Day 2/Day 3 range with the potential to move up if he's better and more consistent this season. 

"That said, there are scouts still very much intrigued with Allar and some who do view him as a legit possibility to end up going in the first round. 'I'm actually higher than most I think,' a scout said. 'I have him right next to Sellers. Could argue you'd take him ahead of him. Another one that has high highs and low lows.'" -- Matt Zenitz (national NFL/national college football senior reporter for CBS Sports)

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Drew Allar college stats

Drew Allar 247Sports profile

High school: Medina (Medina, Ohio)
Class: 2022
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (100)

• National: 3 | QB: 1 | Ohio: 1

Check out Drew Allar's full 247Sports profile, here.