Renner's QB scouting series for 2026 NFL Draft: Why Fernando Mendoza is one of the safest bets to go Round 1

There are a myriad of reasons why a quarterback may be successful in college yet not the NFL. Over the past couple of decades, the first round has been littered with players who couldn't hack it in the league for one reason or another. If I had to boil down the difference between playing quarterback in college vs. the NFL that leads to the most downfalls, it would have to be the speed of the respective games.

While saying "speed of the game" is a common refrain from analysts, it's always conjured up images in my head of defenders just running faster. While that's obviously part of it, it's the downstream effects on the quarterback position that I'm more referring to when I use the phrase. 

In the NFL, pass-rushers get home faster, receivers separate less and holes in zones close quicker. Because of that, passing games are constructed to create brief windows in a progression that open and close within split seconds. Your eyes can be going to the right places, but if they're at the wrong times it won't matter.

This is all to say that when a quarterback already plays at NFL speed, it's a solid indicator for success at the next level. And no quarterback amongst the top prospects was forced to play faster than Fernando Mendoza. 

Fernando Mendoza laments leaving Cal, but development at Indiana could rocket QB to top of NFL Draft boards

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While he transferred to Indiana this spring, Mendoza was the starter at Cal the past year and a half -- a school that hasn't had an offensive player drafted since 2017. While his tight end Jack Endries (who transferred to Texas) will get drafted, that's where it ends for receivers and offensive linemen. 

Mendoza was fighting an uphill battle just to stay alive most games, yet he went above and beyond on a consistent basis. He finished with 270-plus passing yards in eight of his final nine games last year, throwing for just over 3,000 yards and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt on the season.

From a physical perspective, Mendoza feels like a bit of a throwback. He's a big boy at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds with long arms that can really whip it. He does his best work from the pocket, but is more than comfortable throwing on rollouts as well. I say throwback because Mendoza doesn't have the elusiveness or nimble feet that have typified the elite at the position today. Although if you give him a crease, he's not slow by any means.

While there's many unfortunate externalities with the transfer portal, players like Mendoza are the biggest beneficiaries of the new rules. Not only for the sake of his health given the pass protection he had, but also for the level of competition he now gets to face with a more equal footing for his draft prospects.

Daniel Jones at Duke and Brock Purdy at Iowa State are both good recent examples of the pitfalls inherent in evaluating quarterbacks in brutal situations. Both were working with receiving corps and offensive lines that put them at a disadvantage most games. So, evaluators couldn't quite get a feel for how either's play style would change when there was actually peace of mind in the pocket and receivers they could rely on. Purdy got that in the NFL and thrived, while Jones never was able to elevate his game when he finally had pieces around him.

If I had to bet right now with Mendoza, I'm guessing he's closer to Purdy's outcome than Jones'. The biggest reason for that belief? He's aggressive. He obviously wasn't going to have the downfield production of others in this class, but he took chances when he could. Even when the pressure came in waves, Mendoza refused to crawl into his shell. In the game during which he was pressured (19) and sacked (seven) the most times last season against Florida State, Mendoza still averaged a healthy 10.8 yard average depth of target and threw for 303 passing yards. Some of the strikes he had over the course of the season with defenders bearing down on him were jaw-dropping.

So rank him wherever you want at this point; it's all entertainment anyways. But if you ask me to pick one quarterback in this class I know will be able to handle the rigors of the speed of the NFL, one quarterback who can play behind a porous offensive line, I'm going Mendoza without a second thought. 

That gives him a high floor. And in a class full of tools-y projects, Mendoza is one of the safest bets to end up as a first-rounder next spring. 

Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft profile

Fernando Mendoza

IND • QB • #15

6-5, 225 | 21 years old | Redshirt junior

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NFL comparison: Carson Palmer

Like Palmer, Mendoza has an ideal frame with an NFL-caliber arm and some real speed. Also like Palmer, you'll never confuse Mendoza for a running quarterback. He thrives on quick processing and consistent accuracy at the underneath and intermediate levels of the field.

Accolades

• Career: First player in LSU history to return as starting QB after having 4,000 yards passing the previous season
• Career: Two-time bowl game MVP (ReliaQuest Bowl in 2023 and Texas Bowl in 2024)
  
• 2024: Most productive first-year QB in LSU history in several statistical categories
• 2024: 4,052 passing yards rank No. 2 in program history
• 2024: 337 completions led SEC and ranked fourth in FBS
• 2024: 29 passing touchdowns tied for second in SEC and ranked 10th in FBS 

Strengths

• Quick decision-maker
• Knows where to miss when throwing into tight windows
• Willing to deliver strikes under heavy pressure
• Consistently plus ball placement

Weaknesses

• Can run, but not an evasive athlete
• Pocket awareness comes and goes. Will miss defenders
• Anticipation shows mainly on pre-snap determined routes

Fernando Mendoza college stats

Fernando Mendoza 247Sports profile

High school: Marcus (Columbus, Miami)
Class: 2022
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️ (82)

• QB: 134 | Florida: 250

Check out Fernando Mendoza's full 247Sports profile, here.