Renner's NFL Draft QB rankings: Talent galore, but is there anyone making a case for a top 5 selection?
We are still waiting for someone to take off at the sport's most important position
By
Mike Renner
•
6 min read
After completing scouting the quarterbacks during the summer in preparation for the 2026 NFL Draft a couple things were plain to see. The first is that this class has tons of physical talent. The second was that none of them was quite ready to justify a top five selection. Three weeks into the college football season and that assessment hasn't changed a bit.
Note: ⭐️ represents each player's 247Sports star rating as a high school recruit
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It's only been two games and against some shoddy competition, but I'd argue that no one has looked better on a play-for-play basis than Hoover so far this season. He's been quick, accurate, and efficient with one lone pick that came on a screen he tried to feather over an unblocked defensive end that then got tipped by his receiver. He's 48-for-63 (76.2%) for 621 yards (9.9 yards per attempt) with six touchdown passes and that one pick against North Carolina and Abilene Christian. While the raw numbers are great, it's the advanced data that gets me even more excited. He's yet to take a sack all season on 11 pressured dropbacks -- a skill he was already excellent at in 2024 -- and has averaged a swift 2.51 second time to throw.
This Josh Hoover rep is one of my favorite I've seen from a QB prospect this season. Yes, it's a low level of competition, but the speed with which he gets his eyes around, resets feet, and finds the backside dig under duress is outstanding pic.twitter.com/iTUydUEeT9
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 16, 2025
Hoover didn't receive much preseason hype, but I'm guessing that is going to change here soon.
Mateer has been trending upward ever since he first took over as a starter for transfer Cameron Ward at Washington State last season. With his physical ability, that's all you can ask for. For the undefeated Sooners, he's been a shot in the arm for their offense. He's gone for 941 yards through the air and 176 more on the ground through three weeks. His ability to create something out of nothing has been on full display week after week. More importantly, many of the accuracy issues we saw early on last season have been alleviated at this point.
And on the very next play, John Mateer hits Isaiah Sategna for 46 yards! #Sooners https://t.co/jT2Ya8UEi9 pic.twitter.com/FcY5KSldqB
— Im not a fan of your favorite team (@fsh733) September 7, 2025
There's still some serious question marks, though, about his decision-making. He's a little too reliant on that playmaking ability outside of structure and is still lax operating within the offense. Then there's the questionable throws of which there's been a lot through three games. Mateer already has three picks and could easily have had a couple more. Those need to become fewer and further between before he declares for the draft.
Beck was a popular quarterback in first-round mocks at this time last season, but by the end of the year the wheels had completely fallen off and he transferred from Georgia to Miami. Now, Beck is the Heisman odds front-runner and a big reason why the Hurricanes are ranked fourth in the country. While Beck has always been a quick decision-maker he's taken it to another level this season with a lightning quick 2.39 second average time to throw. More importantly, Beck has done so while eliminating the bone-headed mistakes that marred his time at Georgia. According to PFF, Beck has had only one turnover-worthy play on 86 dropbacks this season.
Carson Beck to Malachi Toney TD pic.twitter.com/SiHQcZj5SI
— art (@canefilms) September 1, 2025
What we need to see improve still with Beck to truly get back into the first-round conversation is his downfield accuracy. Because he's not ever going to create much with his legs or outside of structure, and because he has a fairly average arm by NFL standards, Beck's only avenue for explosive plays is by threading needles downfield. There's been a few spectacular throws on his tape so far, but also a number of well off-target tosses as well.
2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick betting odds: Cade Klubnik, Arch Manning see big slide after poor Week 3 showings
Brandon Gustafson
Holding Firm
It's hard to look bad when you complete 95% of your passes the way Mendoza did last weekend. After a slow start at his new landing spot facing Old Dominion in Week 1, Mendoza has bounced back the past two games averaging 11.4 yards per attempt with nine touchdown passes and no picks.
Yes, it was vs. Indiana State, but #Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (6-5, 225, rJR) made some really nice throws last night.
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) September 13, 2025
Finished 19/20 for 270 yards and 6 TDs (five passing and one rushing) in only one half. pic.twitter.com/PWz8grPo6y
The elephant in the room is the schedule so far for the Hoosiers which is not going to mean a darn thing for evaluators by season's end. That changes quickly, however, as he travels to No. Illinois this week and plays host to No. 6 Oregon a few weeks later.
When you are a prospect whose a pure pocket passer with a below-average arm in today's NFL, you better be darn near perfect at the collegiate level to get drafted highly. There's just such little room for error without those traits in the league nowadays. Nussmeier has so much to like about the way he plays the position, but through three games it's fairly clear that he hasn't been "darn near perfect". He's averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and two picks. While his schedule has probably been the hardest of anyone on this list, there's no sense he's made any kind of "leap" forward this season with even more talent at receiver for the Tigers than they had last year. He's still the safest bet in the class to stick in the NFL long term, but that doesn't mean he should be a top five pick.
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Last year there were two versions of Allar. The one who looked like a top 10 pick for ⅔ of the season and the one who couldn't crack 7.0 yards per attempt for his final five games. Before the season I wrote about how polarizing he'd be as a prospect because of that. Unfortunately, through three weeks, Allar has looked more like the guy we saw struggle down the stretch. Even more concerning is that's come against the likes of FIU and Villanova the past two weeks with a boatload more talent at receiver this season via the transfer portal. He completed fewer than 60% of his passes in both with numerous errant throws. Again, these aren't the game tapes evaluators will come back to in the end, but it's a very bad signal.
Unlike Allar, Klubnik has already had some real tests on his schedule. The problem is he's not passed them. Against LSU and Georgia Tech, Clemson's offense managed a grand total of 31 points. The biggest sticking point has been Klubnik's ability to consistently diagnose and exploit blitzes. Defenses have figured it out too and sent 5+ defenders at him on 50.5% of his dropbacks this season, according to PFF. On them, he's gone 22-for-44 for 239 yards (5.4 YPA)
with one touchdown and three picks. That's a death knell for his draft stock if it continues.
Trending Toward 2027
The 2027 or 2028 draft was always the goal for Sellers in my eyes and that's even more evident after the start of this season. While he's had some big plays, he's also taken sacks on 12% of his dropbacks and is still struggling with accuracy. Now he may miss some time after a concussion knocked him out of the Vanderbilt game early on last weekend. The physical talent is absurd, but he's arguably the most underdeveloped pocket passer on this list. It's hard to imagine anyone taking a risk on him highly after how the careers of players like Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson have gone.
With two more years of eligibility after this season, there's no rush for Leavitt to jump to the league. His disastrous performance against Mississippi State itself, where he went 10-for-23 for 82 yards with one touchdown and two picks, is enough to keep him out of this draft class.
If you're reading this, no explanation is necessary.
