2026 NFL Draft: Is Fernando Mendoza the next No. 1 pick? Indiana star QB making it look that way

When writing up newly transferred Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza in the preseason, I highlighted how high his floor was already. Given how well he was able to overcome a porous offensive line and talent-starved receiver room to still produce at a high level for California in 2024, it felt like the difficulty leap to the NFL would at least not overwhelm him.

What was unknown to everyone was how high his ceiling could push when he had open receivers consistently and time to throw. With two NFL-caliber receivers catching passes for him this fall and a couple more NFL-caliber linemen blocking for him, Mendoza's sky-high ceiling has been on display on a near-weekly basis. 

Entering Week 9 of the college football season, Mendoza is the currently the second favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick -- behind only Alabama's Ty Simpson -- at +300, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. He's completing 72.7% of his passes, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has a 21-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the No. 2-ranked Hoosiers. The Mendoza hype train has shown no signs of braking.

No. 1 overall pick odds

So, how did we get here with a player who was only ranked the fourth-best transfer portal quarterback by 247Sports last offseason? And could be actually end up as the No. 1 overall pick given what he already put on tape for a talent-starved California offense in 2024?

The answer to both lies in the mitigation of his two biggest weaknesses from last fall. The pros on tape last season at Cal were obvious. He got the ball out of his hands quickly (2.59-second average time to throw), his ball placement was tremendous, he was willing to stand in to deliver downfield passes while getting hit, and he possessed the arm plus the willingness to consistently drive throws through tight windows over the middle of the field. Those things haven't changed at Indiana.

His cons were a little more subtle. He played a conservative brand of football with fewer special NFL throws on tape compared to top prospects of the past. He also showed an obliviousness to pressure at times that led to the fourth-most sacks taken in the FBS (40).

A conservative quarterback with a high-sack rate is a non-starter in the NFL. Something had to change, and it very much has this fall. He's still not a hyper-aggressive downfield passer, but the "wow" throws have come far more frequently. Take the hole shot or seam strike while getting crunched, both against Iowa.

Or this past week when he put it on Elijah Sarratt's face mask on a go-ball vs. tight coverage.

Those are throws I'd describe as "NFL open," and if they aren't littered on your tape, you have no chance of going No. 1 overall.

While the more frequent NFL throws are a must, it's his performance under pressure that has me more confident he's got staying power in the No. 1 overall pick conversation. Mendoza has not only averaged less than one sack a game (six so far this season), but he's also done it by being more aggressive under pressure. Mendoza is no check-down Charlie; he's averaging 9.0 yards per attempt under pressure (fourth-best in the FBS). That's what you want a No. 1 overall pick to look like.

If you know anything about Mendoza's game, you know those numbers aren't being inflated by him breaking the pocket and exploiting busted coverages. The lack of those second-reaction plays is still his biggest sticking point with NFL evaluators. He's hanging in collapsing pockets to the bitter end and still producing a yards-per-attempt figure that matches Oregon quarterback Dante Moore's yards per attempt on all throws.

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If you are a believer in Mendoza's talents, I'd recommend betting that number now because the odds are only going down. He has a nice soft landing through the end of the regular season; UCLA, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue shouldn't offer much in the way of cold water for the red-hot Hoosiers quarterback. 

Evaluators will have to wait for the penciled-in Big Ten Championship against Ohio State and Indiana's likely subsequent playoff matchup. If he can pass those tests with flying colors -- even if Indiana loses -- he's your No. 1 overall pick come April. 

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Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft profile

Fernando Mendoza

IND • QB • #15

6-5, 225 | 21 years old | Redshirt junior

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NFL comparison: Carson Palmer

Like Palmer, Mendoza has an ideal frame with an NFL-caliber arm and some real speed. Also like Palmer, you'll never confuse Mendoza for a running quarterback. He thrives on quick processing and consistent accuracy at the underneath and intermediate levels of the field.

Strengths

• Quick decision-maker
• Knows where to miss when throwing into tight windows
• Willing to deliver strikes under heavy pressure
• Consistently plus ball placement

Weaknesses

• Can run, but not an evasive athlete
• Pocket awareness comes and goes. Will miss defenders
• Anticipation shows mainly on pre-snap determined routes

Fernando Mendoza college stats

Fernando Mendoza 247Sports profile

High school: Marcus (Columbus, Miami)
Class: 2022
Rating: â­ï¸â­ï¸â­ï¸ (82)

• QB: 134 | Florida: 250

Check out Fernando Mendoza's full 247Sports profile, here.