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There are 11 teams with one win or fewer through Week 4 of the NFL season. Those teams are not created equally, however. For example, few would suggest that Baltimore and Dallas' odds of securing the No. 1 overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft are as good as those of either New Orleans or Tennessee. 

Reflecting upon last season, the Browns lost to the Giants in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. Ultimately, it was the difference between New York picking No. 2 overall and No. 3 overall. Had the Giants been in position to pick No. 2 overall, would they have traded with Jacksonville (Travis Hunter Jr.) or taken Abdul Carter?

Forecasting out the rest of the NFL season, there are some games likely to determine the draft order. Intra-divisional meetings, such as Browns-Bengals, Panthers-Saints and Jets-Dolphins, were excluded for the purpose of this exercise, as they are relatively straightforward.

Here are the 10 games that may impact the order in which teams select next April:

10. Jets at Bengals (Week 8)

Cincinnati already has two wins on the season, but the elevator may not go much higher given Joe Burrow's injury. Over the past five years, the team in possession of the No. 1 overall selection finished the campaign with three wins; one win and two were enough to secure the deed otherwise. Three winless teams remain, including the Jets, and an additional eight have just one win on the season. A handful of those teams will be mentioned throughout the story. 

Even if Burrow returns this season, he will not be available Week 8 against Justin Fields and the Jets. Will a Jake Browning-Justin Fields affair factor into the draft race? 

9. Bengals at Dolphins (Week 16)

Miami has a lone win on the season and it is difficult to imagine many wins are around the turn post-Tyreek Hill injury. Desperation may take hold of head coach Mike Macdaniel as he fights for his job, but will the team be lost by Week 16? Could Burrow be back at that point in the season? Tua Tagovailoa may be competing for his role in Miami or elsewhere. There are so many unknowns considering a game three months away. 

8. Browns at Jets (Week 10)

These two teams have met eight of the past 10 seasons. The stakes of the contest are usually draft-related rather than postseason. It would be a fit of irony if Tyrod Taylor were starting that game, considering Taylor lost his job as the Browns' starting quarterback to No. 1 overall selection Baker Mayfield against the Jets. Cleveland may be starting their third or fourth quarterback of the year by that point.

7. Titans at Browns (Week 14)

The initial rights holders to the Nos. 1 and 2 overall selections in the 2025 NFL Draft may be competing for the same real estate once again. They have a combined one win on the season. Tennessee has its franchise quarterback, so it will almost certainly be looking to win some games and build momentum down the stretch. If they do happen to land the No. 1 overall selection and a quarterback prospect emerges, then they could trade the pick for resources that should, in theory, help them win football games.

6. Dolphins at Browns (Week 7)

Moving on from Tagovailoa after this season is unlikely because of the dead salary cap hit that would balloon. However, there could absolutely be a scenario in which Miami drafts a quarterback in the first round, sits that player for a period of time and then transitions to that player for the 2027 season. The Dolphins' coaching staff and front office must be competitive, so there is urgency for them to steal a few of these games. If the team is out of contention, ownership may shift direction mid-season as part of a more long-term approach to roster building. 

5. Panthers at Jets (Week 7)

Carolina would be in possession of the No. 1 overall selection for the third time in four years; that is clearly not progress. In that scenario, would they be a sneaky team in the quarterback market? Bryce Young is in the third year of his rookie contract and the team will soon have to make a decision on his fifth-year option. The Jets almost certainly will be pursuing a quarterback in the draft.

4. Dolphins at Panthers (Week 5)

Week 5, Sunday, marks the earliest of the games on this list. Each of these teams has one win on the season. A second win would push them towards the limit of being in contention for the No. 1 overall selection. 

3. Jets at Saints (Week 16)

The Battle of First-Year Head Coaches will play out three weeks before the season ends. Spencer Rattler's play has, at the very least, been interesting. He could be playing for an extended look, or the team may have already gone to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. 

New York does not have a potential quarterback of the future on the roster. Tyrod Taylor is backing up Fields.

2. Saints at Dolphins (Week 13)

Miami's fourth game on the list may be its biggest. New Orleans is one of three winless teams remaining. A lot will change between now and late November, but it is unlikely that a lot of separation will be created between these two teams in the draft order. The Saints' investment of a high second-round pick in 26-year-old quarterback Tyler Shough continues to mystify, as the team could once again find itself in the quarterback market. 

1.  Saints at Titans (Week 17)

The penultimate week of the NFL regular season brings a potential matchup between contenders for the No. 1 overall selection. If the Saints' season does not take a turn for the better, it will be easy to envision them having little to play for while Tennessee tries to create some positive offseason momentum with its rookie quarterback. 

Giants at Saints (Week 5), Titans at Raiders (Week 6) and a variety of Patriots games were also under consideration for the list.