Arch Manning report card: The real story of Texas QB's 2025 season -- and how it shapes his NFL draft future

There reaches a tipping point in the media exposure of any public figure where the narrative surrounding them diverges to the polar extremes and the truth becomes difficult to find. This is most obvious with politicians, but applies to big-name athletes as well. 

Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders fit that bill last year, and now Texas quarterback Arch Manning has taken up that mantle. The general public had the younger Manning's name force-fed to them so much before he'd done a meaningful thing on a football field, that they were chomping at the bit to tear down the Texas quarterback.

Of course, their problem isn't with Manning himself (although for some miserable people it probably is), but rather with what they see as a dishonest media trying to push a narrative for clicks. While that's a completely reasonable pushback, it unfortunately has made any reasonable discussion around the next generation Manning impossible.

You need look no further than the replies to Yahoo Sports' Nate Tice and his assessment of Manning's draft stock last week for evidence of that. Tice said that if Manning declared, he would be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Tice is arguably the single most respected NFL film analyst in the industry and would not put out a take for any reason other than he had evidence for it, but even that reputation wasn't enough to keep the wolves at bay.

So where does the truth lie? Is Manning closer to the most overhyped college football player of all time or the No. 1 overall pick? I went through his tape this season and graded out how he stands in the five most important aspects of playing quarterback: decision-making, pocket presence, playmaking, accuracy and NFL throws.

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Decision-making: C+

This was easily the most difficult aspect of Manning's game to evaluate because it would change so much week-to-week. While he was uber-aggressive and turnover-prone early in the season, Manning became far more conservative after his two-interception outing against Florida before striking a perfect balance in his final two games. You can see his turnover-worthy play rates and average depth of target over those stretches below.

 
We can sometimes overread trends into what is often normal variance in performance, but on tape it's obvious Manning was a more comfortable player later in the season compared to early on.

That being said, there are still numerous issues with his decision-making evaluators will want to see cleaned up. The two biggest are turning down easy completions and pre-determining two- or three-man concepts. 

The first is not uncommon with mobile quarterbacks who like to hunt big plays, but you have to take profits when you can in the NFL. The second is probably the more worrisome. What makes it all the more head-scratching is that he's awesome going 1-to-2-to-3 on full-field reads. Give him a binary choice on one side, and he'd too often miss a receiver streaking wide open.

There's still more than enough good and improvement over the course of the season to see Manning developing in this regard, but there's still a ways to go.

Pocket presence: A+

While many relished in the struggles of Manning this season, few were willing to admit that the Texas offensive line was a disaster compared to their 2024 version. They went from the highest-ranked pass-blocking offensive line in the Power-4 last year to 43rd this year (out of 68). For a blue-blood program, that's embarrassing and the root cause of their failed title hopes this fall.

From an evaluation perspective, though, it was a necessary trial by fire to see how a young quarterback would respond. While he obviously took some lumps early on, by the end of the season there wasn't a better quarterback at manipulating the pocket in all of college football. 

In fact, I'd put his ability to operate from tight quarters right up there with any quarterback we've seen in recent college football history. If you've only heard the narrative around Manning and not watched him play, it may surprise you to find out he had more passing yards under pressure (874) than anyone else in the FBS. This is easily his biggest selling point for his NFL prospects.

Playmaking: A-

Manning's pocket presence and playmaking go hand in hand. He's so adept at manipulating pockets because he's such a good athlete. He's not only a value-add as a scrambler, but also in the designed run game where he can rip off chunk plays if unaccounted for.

His ability to create is very similar to what we've seen from Jaxson Dart this year. They both have the unique ability to use their legs to buy themselves more time while still operating within the structure of the play. You won't see Manning's eyes completely drop to take him out of his progression often, and even when he does, he's quick to pick it back up when he's clear of harm's way. He already has what everyone is chasing nowadays at the next level.

Ball placement: C-

The only thing keeping his playmaking from a higher grade is this category right here. Manning left so many second-chance plays on the field through simple misses. It wasn't just on the move and down the field, either. The easy ones were not always easy for the Texas quarterback. Manning completed only 69.7% of his passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield this year. You can see below how that compares to the previous three classes of first-round quarterbacks:

All but one quarterback was worse than Manning, but thankfully he's not close to that territory. Unfortunately, he's not close to the territory of any of the other first-rounders, either, which to me accurately contextualizes his accuracy issues. They aren't a completely untenable disaster when translating to the league, but they are also easily his biggest concern at the moment. The amount of wide-open shallow drags or flat routes from clean pockets that he left uncatchable is borderline for an NFL starter. It simply has to improve for him to be a franchise quarterback.

NFL throws B+

Whether it's throwing into tight windows, layering footballs or ripping deep balls -- NFL throws are the "know them when you see them" plays that are more critical to success at the next level than they are in college. You can put up big numbers in college by slinging sticks and go-balls, but that won't fly in the league. 

The good news is that Manning was not that this fall. He was willing and able to attack every area of the field with a plus NFL arm and anticipation. Even in some of his ugliest games like Ohio State and Florida, Manning still put up numerous "wow" throws in each.

The one area I'd love to see him improve is creating his own windows. It's a hallmark of great quarterbacks at the next level and something we barely got a taste of from the Texas quarterback this fall. The Stafford/Mahomes no-look passes are the extreme version of this, but even adding more pump/shoulder fakes along with eye/feet manipulation to take defenders out of position would take Manning's game to the next level.

It's a very minor quibble for a first-year starter because he already did it a little and it comes later on in the mastery of the position, but it is something you want to see more in time from a true franchise quarterback.

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Final GPA: 3.06

There's no grade inflation when it comes to evaluating prospects, and you won't find many 4.0 students in college football.

The key with Manning is where the high grades come in: pocket presence, playmaking and NFL throws. Those are outstanding building blocks of an NFL quarterback.

While he doesn't fit the profile we've seen in recent years go No. 1 overall, that was always going to be the case as a one-year starter (the last one-year starter to go No. 1 was Cam Newton in 2011).

Given Manning's tools and gradual improvement, he's firmly a top-10 pick already. Given Arch's last name, it would be very hard to see a quarterback-needy general manager willing to pass on him if he were to declare.

There's a very good chance this whole conversation is a moot point, however, as Manning has two more years of eligibility (and neither of his uncles left early). While he may not have lived up to the hype yet, I'd bet in the long run that he does.