The NBA Western Conference Finals heads to Game 4 on Sunday, May 24, with the Oklahoma City Thunder aiming to take a 3-1 lead while the San Antonio Spurs try to even things back up at 2-2. The Spurs took Game 1 in double overtime, but the Thunder have outlasted San Antonio each of the last two games. Game 4 will be a massive one, especially for the Spurs, before the action returns to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET.
Victor Wembanyama has been great offensively for the Spurs, especially in Game 1 when he scored 41 points. The big issue for the Spurs is that they simply don't have the same level of depth that the Thunder do. OKC has had massive contributions from its bench this series, be it Alex Caruso or, in Game 3, Jared McCain. It will be interesting to see if San Antonio can lean on its top five to six guys, or if someone unexpected will emerge. The Spurs are 1.5-point favorites for Game 4, and the total is set at 219.5, per the latest FanDuel Sportsbook NBA odds.
Ahead of Sunday's Game 4, we'll take a deep dive into the NBA best bets for Thunder vs. Spurs using the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons.
The model entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
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NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Sunday, May 24
- Thunder money line
- Under 219.5
- Victor Wembanyama Over 24.5 points
- Chet Homgren Over 21.5 points + rebounds
Thunder money line
The model backed the Thunder on Friday, and it's doing the same for Sunday, with OKC winning Game 4 in 56% of simulations. It's rare that the Thunder are underdogs, even on the road, and the model is all over that value. The reigning champs have used their mix of star power with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and great depth pieces to overwhelm the Spurs each of the last two games, and the model expects the Thunder to return home for Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead.
Spurs-Thunder Under 219.5
The model has issued a 'B' grade to the Under, which is interesting given how this series has gone thus far. Each of the first three games of this series have cleared this number, though Game 1 needed double overtime to do so. San Antonio has leaned to the Under this year, including the postseason, and most of the Spurs' home games have resulted in Unders on the total. The Under hits in roughly 57% of simulations.
Victor Wembanyama Over 24.5 points
Wemby has, unsurprisingly, been the focal point of the Spurs' offense this series, and he's gone Over this line in two of the first three games. With San Antonio staring down a potential 3-1 series deficit, you just know that the team will do whatever it takes to get the star big man the ball as much as possible. The model has Wembanyama projected for 26.9 points on Sunday.
Chet Holmgren Over 21.5 points + rebounds
Holmgren has had an interesting series thus far, but he's yet to clear 21.5 points + rebounds. The model expects that to change in Game 4, though, with a projection of 24.1 points + rebounds. Holmgren had eight points and eight rebounds in Game 1, and while his scoring increased to 13 and 14 points the next two games, he pulled down just seven combined rebounds in Games 2 and 3. The model thinks he'll have a better all-around game in Game 4.
