NBA player props, picks, odds: Target Jimmy Butler with Thursday NBA bets

SportsLine Inside the Lines team and computer model has locked in its top NBA props for Thursday, including Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 made 3-pointers

By Blake Von Hagen

Oct 23, 2025 at 9:15 am ET • 4 min read

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The 2025-26 NBA season continues Thursday night with a pair of primetime games. Indiana will play its first game of the campaign when it hosts Oklahoma City in an NBA Finals rematch at 7:30 p.m. ET, while Golden State faces Denver in a Western Conference showdown at 10 p.m. ET. The Warriors got off to a strong start this season with a 119-109 win over the Lakers on Tuesday, and they are 2-point favorites against Denver in the Thursday NBA odds. Veteran Warriors wing Jimmy Butler knocked down a 3-pointer and scored 31 points in that win, and he is -135 to make a 3-pointer on Thursday, which is one of the NBA props that SportsLine's principal data engineer Stephen Oh and the Inside the Lines team is backing. You can find all of their daily picks at the Inside the Lines live blog.

Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Thursday NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the ITL team's model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, can help you find value to add to your Thursday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Underdog Fantasy promo code CBSSPORTS2 to claim $100 in site credits with a $5 entry:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past seven seasons. The model entered the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 160-118 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It also went 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Best NBA player prop picks on Thursday:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, Over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists (-118)
Jimmy Butler, Warriors, Over 0.5 made 3-pointers (-135)
Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors, Under 2.5 assists (+135)

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, Over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists (-118)

"With Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Joe out, and Cason Wallace and Lu Dort questionable, the backcourt is very thin. He averaged 43.4 last season so given that this is a high profile finals re-match and the Thunder lack healthy backcourt bodies, expect SGA to have a better than average night," Oh said. "I think the line isn't set higher because oddsmakers think this could be a Thunder blowout. While two huge pieces from last year's finals team are not available (Halliburton) or are gone entirely (Myles Turner) and OKC is favored by -7.5, I think the lack of depth for OKC will translate to less defensive pressure which will keep this game close enough for SGA to have his full complement of minutes." Use the latest BetMGM promo code to bet this prop and get receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses as a new user.

Jimmy Butler, Warriors, Over 0.5 3-pointers (-133)

"He averages 0.7 and had at least one three in over 54% of his games last season," Oh said. "Once he settled into his role in Golden State he has gone 25-10, 71% over with a 0.91 average. That is what we are projecting him to do tonight so we have value on this 57% implied line. Butler had a great opening night vs. the Lakers and his contribution on both ends of the floor will keep his minutes in the mid to high 30s." BetMGM once again has the best price, and new users can receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors, Under 2.5 assists (+135)

"If this were a road game this line would probably be set at 1.5 but since his average is +0.5 higher (2.4) in home games, we are getting this 2.5 line," Oh said. "He also had 6 assists in game 1 vs. the Lakers but that relied on some sharper than normal shooting from the Warriors. Prior to game 1 the under was 9-1 and that included 5 games with at least 26 minutes and three 30+ minute games. I love the +$$$ value on the under as well. Even with his higher 2.4 average at home last season the under was still 18-10, 64.3% (39-17, 69.6% overall) last season." New users receive $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins, plus three months of NBA League Pass free with the DraftKings promo code.