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With only two races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, winning has never been more important for drivers on the wrong side of the 16-driver NASCAR playoff cut line. With 13 different drivers winning at least one race with only two events left, those 13 are guaranteed a spot in the postseason, and at least the top points scorer without a victory will make the playoffs. Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher currently hold the three postseason spots for drivers without a victory heading into the 2025 Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway, but none of them are guaranteed a postseason position unless they win one of the next two races.

How should the winless drivers in the 2025 Cook Out 400 driver pool factor into forming a NASCAR betting strategy for NASCAR at Richmond on Saturday night with the green flag dropping at 7:30 p.m. ET? Reddick has the seventh-most points of all drivers this season, which puts him in decent shape to make the playoffs, but a victory at the Cook Out 400 2025 would guarantee that spot. At 19-1 odds, Reddick is one of the model's top longshots for 2025 Cook Out 400 bets for online sports betting to win and secure that postseason position. Ryan Preece (+1300), who has the pole position, Kyle Busch (+2200) and Ty Gibbs (+5000) are other longshots seeking their first victories of the season at NASCAR at Richmond as considerations on betting sites such as FanDuel.

SportsLine simulated the NASCAR Cook Out 400 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:

Best NASCAR at Richmond longshots (odds subject to change):

  • Tyler Reddick (+1900)
  • Kyle Busch (+2200)
  • Josh Berry (+2700)

Tyler Reddick (+1900)

Reddick is the top point scorer among the non-winners this season, but there are still two races for new drivers to win events, and another driver to jump him in the standings for the final NASCAR playoff spots. The 29-year-old had multiple victories in each of the last three seasons, including three last year to finish a career-best fourth in the final NASCAR Cup Series standings. He finished ninth last week at Watkins Glen for his fourth top-10 finish over his last seven races. Reddick finished third at last year's Cook Out 400 while leading eight laps during the race after finishing 10th in his other NASCAR at Richmond race in 2024. Given his additional motivation to win and secure points for the playoffs, the model projects a strong showing for Reddick on Saturday. Reddick has +1900 odds on BetMGM, and with the latest BetMGM promo code, new users receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses:

Kyle Busch (+2200)

Similar to Reddick, Busch is still seeking his first victory to secure a spot in the NASCAR playoffs. Unlike Reddick, Busch is outside the top 16 point scorers and likely needs a victory for his postseason position. The 40-year-old may not have many more racing years ahead of him, and with 63 career Cup Series victories, Busch knows what it takes to cross the finish line first. Expect Busch to take a few more chances with little to lose with the regular season nearly complete. Busch is a six-time victor at Richmond Raceway with 14 top-10 results over his last 18 NASCAR at Richmond events. Busch may drive a little more aggressively on Saturday, which can only help a win-only bet as a crash is just as much of a loss for sports bettors as finishing in second place. Busch has +2200 odds at FanDuel, and the latest FanDuel promo code delivers the chance at an additional bonus with new users earning $300 in bonus bets if their first $5 bet wins. Claim $300 in bonus bets right here:

Josh Berry (+2700)

Berry won the Pennzoil 400 in March to secure his postseason spot earlier in the year, so he'll have nothing to worry about for his postseason fate this weekend. Berry would likely want to put together a few strong drives heading into the playoffs though, as he has the lowest points of the 13 NASCAR Cup Series winners this year. Berry has finished no worse than 14th in his three NASCAR at Richmond races, including second at his track debut in April 2023, so his stronger results should play to his advantage. The 34-year-old has the fifth-best track average (9.0) at Richmond Raceway over the last three years. DraftKings lists Berry at +2700 odds, while other sportsbooks have him priced +3000 or lower, and with the latest DraftKings promo code, new users can receive $200 in bonus bets, plus $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket, with their first $5 wager. Claim the promo here: 

More top NASCAR at Richmond expert picks, longshots revealed

You've seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 Cook Out 400 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 27 winners, including Elliott's victory at Bowman Gray, Larson's win at Miami, Bell's All-Star victory, Hamlin's Michigan win, van Gisbergen's Mexico triumph, Elliott in Atlanta, and van Gisbergen again in Chicago, Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

2025 Cook Out 400 odds, drivers, lineup

(odds via DraftKings subject to change)

Denny Hamlin +230
Christopher Bell +550
Brad Keselowski +650
Chase Elliott +650
Ryan Preece +1300
Ryan Blaney +1300
William Byron +1400
Kyle Larson +1400
Tyler Reddick +1900
Kyle Busch +2200
Bubba Wallace +2500
Chase Briscoe +2500
Josh Berry +2700
Alex Bowman +3500
Joey Logano +3500
Austin Dillon +3500
Chris Buescher +4000
Ty Gibbs +5000
AJ Allmendinger +6000
Ross Chastain +6000
Carson Hocevar +6500
Austin Cindric +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Michael McDowell +12500
Erik Jones +15000
John Hunter Nemechek +17500
Noah Gragson +22500
Corey Heim +25000
Ty Dillon +25000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Jesse Love +30000
Shane van Gisbergen +30000
Riley Herbst +50000
Justin Haley +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Zane Smith +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +50000