Top MLB home run picks, odds for Aug. 17: Jazz Chisholm among best bets for Sunday HR player props
The Inside the Lines team has been dishing out nightly home run bets all season long -- up well over 50 units on the year. For more free daily picks across all sports, visit the Inside the Lines blog.

MLB home run betting is all about using splits, pitching matchups, and weather data to isolate the top values. However, with all 30 MLB teams in action on Sunday, it can be helpful to have a tool that helps you sort through the hundreds of players who are listed on the MLB HR odds page. Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm has hit 32 home runs in 504 at-bats since arriving in New York, but you can still find him listed for as high as +575 at BetMGM, and he's one of our top MLB HR picks for Sunday. Before you make any MLB home run predictions for Sunday's action, be sure to check out the top MLB HR picks for today from the Inside the Lines team, which uses the SportsLine projection model to power its daily MLB HR prop picks.
MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 56.1 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Zachary Neto (+420) to homer on Friday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their top MLB betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday.
Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 17:
- Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+575)
- Ben Rice, Yankees (+450)
MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/17
Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+575, BetMGM)
Jazz is starting to find his power with two home runs in his last five games. He has 19 of his 21 HRs against right-handed pitchers, along with a .861 OPS against righties compared to a .660 OPS vs. lefties. Mikolas has allowed a .269 average and .804 OPS against left-handed batters this season. He's also struggled a bit since the All-Star break, allowing 6 HRs in his last 5 starts. Chisholm is 3-4 in his career against Mikolas. We like the longshot odds at +575 and would set Chisholm's line at around +380. It's BetMGM offering the best price here, and you can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
Ben Rice (+450, DraftKings)
Rice is coming off a monster seven-RBI game yesterday, and we're going to take a shot on both Rice and Chisholm and hope one of them comes through. Rice has an .848 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. While he only has 18 HRs on the season, his batted ball data is very impressive and suggests he probably should have more. We have fair value here and set Rice's line at +440, but we're buying into him after a big day last night. You can find this price at DraftKings and also get $200 in bonus bets instantly as well as over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket here:
In addition to Chisholm and Rice, the model has revealed one other pick for its three-leg MLB HR parlay on Sunday. The model likes this player's matchup in a "hitter-friendly park" on Sunday, and this pick is key to a three-leg parlay that pays out +13783 at BetMGM on Sunday. Be sure to check out who the player is and the rest of the model's top MLB player props every day.
Where to bet MLB props on Sunday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday:
Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
---|---|---|
Caesars | ||
BetMGM | ||
FanDuel | ||
DraftKings | Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets instantly and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket | |
Fanatics | ||
bet365 |
More MLB picks for Sunday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on a 98-90-1 roll (+1495) on MLB picks.