The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres wrap up a three-game set when they meet on Thursday's MLB schedule. The Phillies (32-29) won the first two contests of the series, both by 3-2 scores. The Padres (32-28) have now dropped four in a row for the third time this season, which ties for their longest losing streak of the year. Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.27 ERA) will take the ball for Philly, countered by San Diego RHP Lucas Giolito (2-0, 4.97 ERA).
First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won six straight versus San Diego dating back to last season. Philadelphia is the -191 favorite on the money line (risk $191 to win $100) in the latest Padres vs. Phillies odds, while the over/under for total runs is 8. Before making any Phillies vs. Padres picks, or MLB predictions, be sure to see the Padres vs. Phillies predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and enters Week 11 of the MLB season on a red-hot 17-5 run (77%) on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Padres vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Padres:
Padres vs. Phillies money line | Phillies -191, Padres +158 |
Padres vs. Phillies over/under | 8 runs |
Padres vs. Phillies run line | Padres +1.5 (-132) |
Padres vs. Phillies picks | See picks at SportsLine |
Padres vs. Phillies streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Phillies vs. Padres predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Padres vs. Phillies, the model is going Over 8 combined runs. For over/under betting, the pitchers on the mound indicate there could be plenty of runs on the scoreboard. Wheeler is coming off his worst outing, allowing 4 ER and 4 HR last Friday. As for Giolito, he also gave up 4 ER in his last start, and that came in just 2.2 innings. He's also been roughed up by Philadelphia's best hitters as Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have combined for five homers across just 27 ABs versus Giolito.
The model projects each of those three Phillies to have at least 1.5 total bases, while several Padres batters will have impressive games as well. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts are all forecasted to score at least 0.5 runs. With both teams projected to score more than 4 runs, on average, the value is backing the Over in this contest. Get the Phillies vs. Padres money-line pick at SportsLine.
How to make Padres vs. Phillies picks
After simulating every pitch of Phillies vs. Padres 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Padres vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
