Cubs vs. Padres score: Chicago holds off San Diego in Wild Card Series Game 3 to advance in playoff bracket

The Chicago Cubs advanced to the NLDS with their 3-1 win over the San Diego Padres in the decisive Game 3 of the Wild Card Series on Thursday at Wrigley Field. For the Padres, they see their 2025 season end, and they remain in search of their first World Series title in franchise history. 

The Cubs got four scoreless innings from Jameson Taillon, who cracked the Wild Card Series rotation only because of Cade Horton's rib injury. From there, the retooled Cubs bullpen took it home despite occasional traffic on the bases. Critical once again, was the fielding of shortstop Dansby Swanson, whose defensive prowess played a role in each of the three games against San Diego. Also getting in on the act in Game 3 was second baseman Nico Hoerner, also a standout glove-man, with this snare that may have kept the Padres off the board in the seventh: 

Offensively, they pushed across a pair of runs early but also squandered a number of opportunities later in the game. That made Michael Busch's insurance homer in the bottom of the seventh most welcome. Jackson Merrill finally put the Padres on the board with a ninth-inning solo homer of his own. The Pads had the potential tying run on base thanks to consecutive HBPs, but Andrew Kittredge relieved Brad Keller and was able to record the final two outs. In all, the Cubs permitted just five total runs across the three-game series. Now they're on to face their NL Central rivals and the best team in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Out call confirmed.

Padres challenge the out call at first, but it's probably going to be confirmed. If it is, Pads will still have runners on second and third with two outs. 

Back-to-back HBPs mean the Padres have the tying run on base. Andrew Kittredge now coming in for the Cubs.

Brad Keller has lost his command. He's hit back-to-back batters with one out. The Padres have the tying run at first base and go-ahead run at the plate. 

Jackson Merrill hits a solo homer to start the ninth. It's getting dramatic again ...

Three outs to go for the Cubs. 

PCA now 3 for 4 in Game 3. His offensive struggles in recent weeks and months have been much discussed, but he's feeling it today.

Cubs have a 94% chance of closing out the series. Keller on to pitch for Chicago.

Michael Busch, who led the Cubs with 34 home runs in the regular season, homered to lead off the bottom of the seventh inning. 

The Cubs now have a 3-0 lead. Nico Hoerner immediately followed with a double off the left-center wall and the Padres are going back to the bullpen. 

There was a .560 expected batting average on this liner off the bat of Jose Iglesias: 

Excellent playoff baseball drama here.

Cubs infield defense keeps coming up big. 

Worthy challenge by Counsell, but there wasn't enough to overturn.

After the Xander Bogaerts leadoff single, the Cubs are going to lefty Drew Pomeranz (a former Padre) for the lefties at the bottom of the order. I assume Brad Keller will come in for the top of the order. After Keller, if anyone, maybe it'll be Andrew Kittredge again.

File this away if the Cubs' bullpen can't keep throwing up zeroes. The Cubs have outhit the Padres 10-4. They've left seven runners on base. Their only hit with a runner in scoring position was Pete Crow-Armstrong's second-inning, bases loaded single. 

Also, keep in mind, there have been three double plays and a caught stealing, too. The Cubs have had a ton of baserunners for a 2-0 game.

Both teams are deep into their bullpen (the Padres out of necessity, the Cubs by design) and I'm starting to wonder how they'll piece together these last three innings. The Cubbies are nursing a 2-0 lead. The Padres had gotten just nothing going on offense. They've scored four runs in the 2.5 games and have had 20 baserunners.  

The Cubs had an awful catching situation the last few years. Kelly came in on a two-year deal to backup Miguel Amaya. Amaya was hurt nearly all year and Kelly posted 3.6 WAR, a career high at age 31. 

Swanson again. 

Dansby Swanson's glove has been outstanding this series.

The Padres have closer Robert Suarez warming up here in the fifth. If he goes two innings, they'll still need someone to cover at least one more inning. Two if they win.

Palencia gets Tatis to fly out. Cubs still lead 2-0 going into the bottom of the fifth. 

Padres have the potential tying run in scoring position with two outs. Tatis is up. 

Michael King of course has plenty of experience as a lockdown reliever, so this isn't unfamiliar ground for him. 

Taillon has thrown 60 pitches through four innings. His data this season didn't show a significant drop off in the fifth inning and the bottom of the Padres' lineup isn't good. My wish is to let Taillion finish the order and have Danny Palencia ready for Tatis, whether that's in the fifth or sixth innings. Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller are good to go late, but Counsell might not use the same formula as Game 1 with Andrew Kittredge having thrown each of the first two games and looking bad in the first inning in Game 2.

Threat averted. Cubs still lead 2-0, and Taillon has given them four scoreless. This could be it for him, as manager Craig Counsell is no doubt going to be aggressive and pre-emptive when it comes to bullpen usage. Caleb Thielbar has been warming up.

Two-out double by Jackson Merrill gives the Padres an RISP in the fourth.

Hard to carve up Fernando Tatis Jr., but Taillon certainly did in that AB.

Cubs now have an 81.9% chance of winning Game 3 and thus the series.