MLB picks: Jackson Chourio a part of expert's best bets for Thursday's MLB playoff games

The MLB playoffs continue on Thursday, Oct. 16 with the Milwaukee Brewers facing the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 while the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners battle in Game 4. The Dodgers lead the Brewers 2-1 in the NLCS, while the Mariners hold a 2-1 edge over the Blue Jays in the ALCS. Milwaukee and Toronto lost two home games to start both series, and the road team has won every game in this round across both leagues so far.

If you're interested in MLB betting, you need to see what Angelo Magliocca, also known as "Amags," has lined up for Tuesday's contest. Magliocca, a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. Here's a look at his picks for Wednesday's Game 3.

Best MLB bets on Thursday, Oct. 16

• Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100, DraftKings): 0.5u
• Mariners first seven innings team total Over 2.5 runs (-140, DraftKings): 0.5u

The Brewers center fielder was the only offense in a 5-1 loss against the Dodgers when Yoshinobu Yamamoto went the distance against them in game two, and I'm backing him to have another solid performance on Thursday. Facing Tyler Glasnow, who is using that fastball and sinker nearly 60% of the time against right-handed batters, I think Chourio can hone in on something hard and put a good swing on the ball as he did against Yamamoto. Neither pitch has a better than 22% whiff rate this year for Glasnow, forcing him to lean on the slider and curve for his swing and miss. The approach from the Dodgers' righty is appropriate and he's been successful, but Chourio has an expected wOBA of .304 and .339 against the fastball and sinker, both numbers 40-60 points better than his real wOBA. If Glasnow is going to give him a heavy dose of the hard stuff and we get Chourio at or near the top of the order for the away team here, there's no reason to not like the over at this price.

For a similar price, I like the same spot as last night for the Mariners to score at least three runs in the first seven innings. In what was one of the worst beats we have had this year, the Mariners got two runs on the board before Shane Bieber could even record an out yesterday, only to be shut down for 7+ innings after that, leading to us narrowly missing a win on the over 2.5 runs in the first seven innings. Max Scherzer now takes the mound for Toronto after allowing at least four runs in five of his last six appearances to end the year. He hasn't taken the ball in the postseason yet and this makes for a great bounce back spot for a Mariners offense that could not do much last night in terms of scoring runs but Seattle did still pick up eight hits along the way. The Blue Jays bullpen has been talked about a few times already in these articles as a clear weak point for their club, but getting out to a huge lead quickly last night only helped their cause, allowing Bieber to get deeper in the game and providing no stress for those back end relievers. I think this one is much different tonight and wouldn't be surprised if they got three runs off just Scherzer before he departs.

Worth nothing

Brice Turang and William Contreras also profile as two hitters you could take the over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI on tonight, and Turang is especially interesting with how hard he's hit the ball off Glasnow this year. In five plate appearances against him this year, Turang recorded two hits and had three "hard hit balls" with another one over 90 mph as well. He's seemingly had Glasnow's number a little bit so I'd be willing to take a shot at the near +120 odds we're getting. Contreras has six plate appearances against Glasnow this year and from the four balls he actually hit, three of them registered as "hard contact" with two of those being at 102+ mph exit velocity. Unfortunately, none of those were hits for Contreras as a couple of ground balls were right at the fielders, but tonight his fortune could be different as the Brewers find themselves in a must win game.

The Dodgers are sitting "fat and happy" right now so I stayed away from fading Glasnow Under 16.5 outs but I do believe that's the correct side once again. My only worry would be that since the Dodgers are already up 2-0 here, there's not a huge need to make a move to the bullpen if he gets into trouble. Allowing him to potentially work through some issues could pose a problem for our Under, especially if he has a few solid, short innings and keeps the pitch count low to start off. I also don't love backing the Brewers offense as a whole right now after how lame they've looked, but digging into the previous two starts Glasnow had against this offense does provide at least a bit of confidence with the abundance of hard hit balls. I'd back the Brew Crew with some reluctancy here.