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After winning the first two games of the series, the San Diego Padres will look to sweep the New York Mets on Wednesday to wrap up a critical series in the National League. Despite the two losses, the Mets are still clinging to a half-game lead in the NL East with a 62-46 record while the Padres have crept to within four games of the Dodgers in the NL West at 59-49. The pitching matchup in Game 3 will be Clay Holmes vs. Yu Darvish and the forecast in San Diego is calling for game-time temperatures in the upper-70s with 10 mph winds blowing across into the right field corner.

First pitch from Petco Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. San Diego is a -126 favorite (risk $126 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Padres odds, while New York is a +103 underdog (risk $100 to win $103). The over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18 ERA) is -125 to allow 5+ hits. Before making any Mets vs. Padres picks, be sure to see the MLB betting predictions from SportsLine's proven model. Bet on Mets vs. Padres and every other MLB game at DraftKings, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the latest DraftKings promo code:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 46 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns, especially when paired with the latest BetMGM promo code and FanDuel promo code, just to name a few. At BetMGM, new users can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses.

Here are the model's three best bets for Mets vs. Padres on Wednesday:

Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+113)

Lindor had a double and a single on Tuesday when the model predicted this same prop and it's going back to the well here, rating it a 4-star play. The five-time MLB all-star has recorded multiple hits in three of his last five games and he's also 6-for-22 with a double and a home run in his career against Padres starter Yu Darvish. The model predicts 1.7 total bases on average for Lindor.

Clay Holmes over 3.5 strikeouts (-117)

After seven years of being used almost exclusively as a reliever with the Pirates and Yankees, Holmes joined the Mets this offseason and found himself in the starting rotation, where he's excelled. He's 9-5 with a 3.40 ERA on the season and has recorded 88 strikeouts over 113 2/3 innings. He's recorded at least four strikeouts in 11 of his 21 starts this season and the Padres have struck out 14 times already in this series. Holmes is predicted to finish with 4.6 strikeouts on average by the model.

Manny Machado over 0.5 RBI (+158)

Machado recorded his 2,000th career hit earlier this season and he's still at the top of his game in Year 14 of his MLB career. He extended his hitting streak to seven games on Tuesday night with a home run and has six multi-hit outings during that span. He's produced seven RBI in those seven games as well, and the model predicts he records 0.7 RBI on average.

Want more MLB picks for Wednesday?

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