The Mets designated veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel for assignment on Friday night. The move, which comes after Kimbrel posted a 6.00 ERA, 1.467 WHIP and 15 strikeouts in 15 innings this season, brings about two questions: 1. Will Kimbrel, who turns 38 next week, catch on with another team this season? 2. Will Kimbrel be a Hall of Famer when his career comes to a close?
I'm here to answer question No. 2. Regular readers here on CBS Sports know I'm big on discussing the Hall of Fame, even going back to long before I was a voter. When there's news like this Kimbrel DFA, my mind can't help but stray to breaking down his Hall of Fame case. Let's rumble.
Given that Kimbrel is a closer, minds will immediately go to saves. Kimbrel has locked down 440 in his career, which ranks fifth all-time behind Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Kenley Jansen and Lee Smith. Kimbrel is ahead of Hall of Fame relievers like Billy Wagner, Dennis Eckersley (who also started a decent amount), Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter.
Kimbrel, a nine-time All-Star and 2018 World Series winner, has appeared in 865 games and finished 836 ⅔ innings in his career. He's struck out 1,297 batters against 340 unintentional walks. He sports a 2.65 ERA (155 ERA+) and 1.03 WHIP. On a rate basis, he's been one of the greatest relievers ever.
In fact, let's put together a table with Kimbrel and some other Hall of Fame relievers to see the how the rate stats stack up.
| Reliever | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mariano Rivera | 2.21 | 205 | 1.00 | 8.2 |
Trevor Hoffman | 2.87 | 141 | 1.06 | 9.4 |
Billy Wagner | 2.31 | 187 | 1.00 | 11.9 |
Lee Smith | 3.03 | 132 | 1.26 | 8.7 |
2.65 | 155 | 1.03 | 14.0 |
The big takeaway there regarding Kimbrel is that he stacks up just fine.
One might wonder what took Wagner so long to get into the Hall of Fame (he made it in 2025 on his fifth and final try), considering it only took Hoffman three tries and that Rivera got 100% of the vote in his first try. Workload was it. While Rivera was the easy and obvious GOAT and had nearly 1,300 innings, Hoffman racked up nearly 1,100 and Wagner pitched in just 903.
This is where there is concern on Kimbrel's case. He's almost 70 innings shy of Wagner, and it took Wagner all 10 years on the Hall of Fame ballot to finally clear the 75% needed for enshrinement.
This shows itself in the JAWS system. Wagner is sixth all-time among relievers, behind Rivera, Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman. Kimbrel is now sitting 18th, behind a list of non-HOFers like Joe Nathan, Tom Gordon, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and David Robertson (Robertson hasn't yet been on a ballot, but he surely won't make the Hall).
The avenue for Kimbrel would be similar to that of Wagner. Closers back when they first became a thing, such as Fingers and Gossage, would often work multi-inning saves. The single-inning reliever is a relatively modern concept. The push against Wagner was the lack of innings. The push for Wagner allowed for the shortcoming in innings due to the different shape of the closer role in the modern era while noting how amazing he was on a rate basis.
Though Kimbrel isn't as good in terms of run prevention as Wagner, he crushes him and nearly every other reliever ever in strikeout rate. That goes with the evolution of the game. Racking up strikeouts in one-inning outings is exactly what is asked of closers these days, and Kimbrel was one of the best.
Another aspect to Hall of Fame arguments is to compare a player to his peers.
There is a trio of top-shelf closers from Kimbrel's generation: Kimbrel, Jansen and Aroldis Chapman along with Kimbrel. Here's how the three stack up, entering Saturday, as all three are active.
- Kimbrel: 836 ⅔ IP, 2.65 ERA, 155 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP, 1,297 K, 440 SV, 22.5 WAR
- Jansen: 940 ⅔ IP, 2.58 ERA, 154 ERA+, 0.96 WHIP, 1,297 K, 483 SV, 24.4 WAR
- Chapman: 839 IP, 2.48 ERA, 167 ERA+, 1.07 WHIP, 1,354 K, 379 SV, 25.3 WAR
Should only Jansen make it? Should all three?
These will be interesting discussions down the road.
The final component of the argument that will always prop up with relievers is that relievers are generally considered to have been failed starting pitchers. There are some people who reasonably believe that no reliever other than Rivera should be in the Hall of Fame due to the fact that they just weren't good enough to be a starter and that an average starter could've been a Hall-of-Fame-caliber reliever.
On the flip side, my stance is that closer is a specialization -- not unlike a kicker or punter in football -- and that we can let the cream of the crop in the Hall of Fame, so long as the bar for HOF status is much higher than other positions.
At any other position, I'd be jumping up and down in support of a player sitting 18th in JAWS. And, again, Kimbrel is fifth all-time in saves and that's really the main job of a closer. Given the higher bar for relievers, Kimbrel is not a surefire Hall of Famer, though. He feels borderline. I'll have to wait and see how the ballots look when he's on them, but my hunch is he'll be right around my cut-off point -- either one of the last few players to get my vote or one of the best to not get it.
