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The American League MVP will be revealed Thursday and it's going to be either Aaron Judge of the Yankees or Cal Raleigh of the Mariners (sorry José Ramirez). Regardless of who wins, there will be complaints. Team Judge and Team Raleigh are dead set in their opinions.

In addition to the stats, two factors are involved here. One is fatigue -- voter fatigue, but fans get it too. The other is the historical element. Let's talk about those in a second. First, the stat lines: 

Raleigh: .247/.359/.589, 169 OPS+, 24 2B, 60 HR, 125 RBI, 110 R, 14 SB, 7.4 WAR

Judge: .331/.457/.688, 215 OPS+, 30 3B, 2 3B, 53 HR, 114 RBI, 137 R, 12 SB, 9.7 WAR

Voter Fatigue

Judge has won two of the last three AL MVPs, including last year. It's human nature to grow tired of seeing the same dude winning an award over and over. There's a reason the only player to have ever won more than three MVPs is Barry Bonds (Shohei Ohtani will join the list this year), but even with Bonds, voter fatigue cost him multiple MVPs. Albert Pujols probably missed out on at least one MVP because the writers got bored. Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson should have won more Cy Youngs but, again, people just get tired of the same name being called every November.

A lot of times, voter fatigue is responsible when you hear arguments about intangibles, especially if the players both come from playoff teams.

Obviously, if a player is head and shoulders above the others -- as is the case with Ohtani this season -- the voters power through. If there's an argument against a guy who has won an award multiple times recently, though, it's going to gain steam. Raleigh, the Mariners slugger who broke records this year for switch hitters and for catchers, has enough of a case this season that the people who are subconsciously tired of Judge winning MVP can convince themselves that Raleigh has to win the hardware.

It might sound like I'm saying the only reason someone would vote for Raleigh is voter fatigue. And, well, just look at the stats. Judge is overwhelmingly better in the rate stats and he's within striking range in home runs and RBI. Put it this way, Judge is much closer in the counting stats than Raleigh is in the rate stats.

There is another reason, though ... 

History

Remember, Raleigh is a catcher. He was the first catcher ever to hit 50 home runs in a season, let alone 60. He also set the record for the most home runs ever by a switch hitter. There have certainly been cases before where history trumped WAR and the triple-slash line. Take 2012, when Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown and handily beat Mike Trout, despite Trout having 3.4 more WAR. 

How about this one? 

Player A: .317/.448/.687, 206 OPS+, 10.5 WAR, 128 RBI, 131 R, 12 SB
Player B: .269/.372/.620, 167 OPS+, 7.5 WAR, 141 RBI, 132 R, 0 SB

Guess who won the MVP? Yep, Player B. I left out home runs because it would've given it away. Player A hit 54. Player B hit 61. 

This was Roger Maris over Mickey Mantle in 1961. 

It seems pretty clear that Mantle was a more valuable player that season, statistically. The areas he trailed Maris were close and he blew him away with rate stats. That's 48 points of average, 142 of OPS and 3.6 of WAR as differences compared to Maris having seven more homers, 13 more RBI and one more run. Mantle was a better defender and baserunner, too. 

But Maris set the new single-season home run record, so he won MVP. When people talk about some of the worst voting in awards, the 1961 AL MVP is rarely, if ever, mentioned. Why? History. Of course the new single-season home run leader was going to win that thing over a teammate.

We might've seen something similar just two years ago. There were arguments for both Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuña Jr. for National League MVP. Betts actually had a higher WAR and sometimes that's enough these days. Acuña won unanimously, though, as he was the first-ever player to hit at least 40 home runs with at least 70 stolen bases in a season. 

Making history is another area where there's an opening for Raleigh. Yes, voter fatigue could conspire against Judge, but a catcher getting to 60 home runs justifies a vote for Raleigh in the minds of many.