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The San Diego Padres sit in second place in the National League West standings with a 55-47 record, 4.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Padres will look to close that gap when they travel to take on the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday. The Cardinals limp into tonight's contest having lost five of their last six games, while the Padres look to snap a two-game losing skid. According to the latest MLB odds, the Padres are +125 underdogs, which is one of the longshots that SportsLine's model is targeting on Thursday. 

Thursday's MLB schedule features just five games, and oddsmakers are expecting several tight matchups. The biggest favorite is the Los Angeles Angels, who are priced at -156 at home against the Seattle Mariners. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlays, you'll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model. Bet on every MLB game at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can use the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets instantly here:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 17 of the 2025 MLB season 46-43 on top-rated MLB picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 50 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns. 

The model has broken down the MLB betting odds for Thursday and just revealed its top MLB longshot picks. Combining the model's three picks into an MLB parlay at BetMGM Sportsbook would result in a payout of +1183 (risk $100 to win $1,183). New users can even take advantage of the BetMGM bonus code offering up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses. Click here to claim the offer. 

Here are its best longshot bets for the MLB slate on Thursday:

  • Padres money line vs. Cardinals (+125)
  • Christian Walker, Astros, Over 0.5 RBI (+150)
  • Mariners money line vs. Angels (+128)
  • Combine these picks for a shot at a +1183 payout (odds subject to change)  

Padres money line vs. Cardinals (+125)

San Diego lost its series against the Miami Marlins, but the Padres gave up just eight runs over three games. San Diego's pitching staff enters Thursday's matchup ranked fourth in the MLB with a 3.58 ERA, and the Padres will turn to Yu Darvish (0-2, 6.08 ERA) against St. Louis. The Cardinals enter this one in a bit of a slump, having lost five of their past six games, which includes a 6-0 defeat against the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. The model has San Diego winning in over 50% of simulations, providing value at this price. 

Christian Walker, Astros, Over 0.5 RBI (+150)

Walker has been effective at the plate in recent outings, recording at least one RBI in four of his last five games while totaling nine hits during that span. He's racked up 52 RBI on the season and will look to take advantage of a matchup against Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino, who enters Thursday's game with a 3-11 record and a 5.10 ERA. The model projects Walker to finish with 0.6 RBI in its latest simulations, which makes the +150 prop worth wagering on.

Mariners money line vs. Angels (+128)

The Mariners snapped Milwaukee's 11-game winning streak with a 1-0 victory on Tuesday before turning around and losing 10-2 on Wednesday. However, the Mariners defeated the Angels 3-2 in their last meeting on the road, a game in which Cal Raleigh didn't play. Raleigh leads the MLB with 39 home runs this season and should be well-rested after taking the day off on Wednesday. Raleigh could also have success against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 3.13 ERA), who's given up 23 hits, 11 runs and eight walks across four starts in July. SportsLine's model has Seattle winning in 57% of simulations, creating value on the money line.

Want more MLB picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's MLB best longshot bets for Thursday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top MLB picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who's on a sizzling 60-50-1 roll on his last 111 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up over 15 units.