Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 11: Jazz Chisholm among best bets for Friday HR player props

For Jazz Chisholm Jr., it's ask and you shall receive. The Yankees infielder made it known he'd like to partcipate in the 2025 Home Run Derby while invitations were being given around the league, but the New York left-handed hitter wasn't one of the league's first choices. However, on Thursday, MLB announced Chisholm as a member of the 2025 Home Run Derby field shortly after proving again why he should be included with two home runs on Wednesday to improve his total to 17 homers on the season. 

Before he competes in Monday's Home Run Derby, Chisholm is one of our top MLB HR picks for Friday to show off exactly why he's deserving of a spot in the field. He's priced at +400 odds on BetMGM to go deep, and the latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB home run picks on betting sites. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 37.65 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting all three of its picks on Wednesday, with a three-leg parlay paying +12963. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. You can also see who the model likes in the Yankees vs. Cubs on Friday night.

Best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 11:

• Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (+400)
• Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+425)
• Corey Seager, Rangers (+425)
• Parlay these picks for +13681 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (+400)

The left-handed hitting infielder has thrived at a notoriously hitter-friendly park for lefties at Yankee Stadium, with Chisholm batting .315 with a 1.062 OPS and 13 of his 17 home runs in the Bronx. Chisholm had a career-high 24 home runs last season and he's set to blow past that number this year. Although Cubs probable starter Chris Flexen has been strong this season, Flexen had a 4.95 ERA and a 6.86 ERA this year before.

"He's also crushed right-handed pitching, with 16 of his 17 HRs coming against RHPs," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "While Chris Flexen has been solid this season, our model expects some regression and likes this matchup for Jazz. We set his line at +314 to homer." BetMGM is offereing the best odds at +400, and you can play the latest BetMGM promo code with bonus money back if he doesn't go deep here.

Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+425)

The 30-year-old catcher already has a career-high 25 home runs, even before the All-Star Break, as Suzuki has increased his home run total in each of his four major league seasons. This marks Suzuki's third straight 20-home run season as one of the best power-hitting catchers in baseball. He has three home runs and a 1.057 OPS in nine games in July with incredible metrics as well, including a barrel percentage better than 98% of baseball and a launch angle sweet spot percentage better than 99% of the sport.

"Suzuki has already set a career high with 25 home runs this season and has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching, posting a .960 OPS," Fetner said. "Carlos Rodón is having a strong season overall, but he's been prone to giving up the long ball—15 HRs allowed so far, with 11 of those coming off the bats of right-handed hitters. Righties also have an OPS over 100 points higher than lefties against Rodón." Both DraftKings and BetMGM have Suzuki at +425 odds to hit a home run, and the latest DraftKings promo code offers new users $150 in bonus bets after making their first $5 wager.

Corey Seager, Rangers (+425)

Seagar has been one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport this month with a .394 batting average and 1.300 OPS over nine July games, including two home runs over his last four contests. Extend back into the end of June, and Seager has six home runs over the last two weeks. He was off to a slow start with seven home runs over his first 49 games, but this is the powerful version of Seager baseball has witnessed over the last few years. Seager hit at least 30 home runs in each of the prior three seasons. 

"He owns an .889 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season," Fetner said. "While Lance McCullers has been more effective against lefties, Seager's current form makes this a favorable spot regardless of the pitcher's splits." BetMGM is once again offering the best odds at +425, with the majority of other sportsbooks pricing Seager in the +350 range.

Where to bet MLB props on Friday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:

More MLB picks for Friday

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 179-107 roll (+1062.75) on MLB picks.