Free MLB home run picks, odds for August 31: Jackson Chourio among best bets for Sunday HR player props

Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio is one of the game's brightest young stars and the 21-year-old is having another solid season after posting 21 homers, 79 RBI and 22 stolen bases with a .791 OPS as a rookie. Chourio enters Sunday's action against the Blue Jays with 18 homers, 68 RBI, 18 steals and a .794 OPS. He missed more than a month with a hamstring injury, but went yard in his return to action on Saturday, and now he's one of our top MLB home runs picks for Sunday.

He'll square off against Max Scherzer today, and Scherzer gave up two home runs in his last start, so the model is jumping all over Chourio's +450 pricing in the latest MLB HR odds. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 49.75 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Jazz Chisholm (+400) to homer on Thursday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 31:

• Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+450)
• Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (+500)
• Junior Caminero, Rays (+340)
• Parlay these picks for +13925 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/31

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Jackson Chourio (+450, BetMGM)

Chourio returned yesterday after missing a month and didn't miss a beat, collecting two hits and a home run. Max Scherzer is allowing 1.8 HR/9—his highest rate in any season—though it's over a 66-inning sample. He's also allowed 9 HRs in 7 home starts in Toronto. We set Chourio's line at +360 to homer, and you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first loses when using the latest BetMGM promo code: 

Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (+500, BetMGM)

Carpenter is quite familiar with Michael Wacha, having faced him 15 times in his career. He's 4-15 against Wacha, including a home run. Carpenter has an .845 OPS against right-handed pitchers compared to just .591 against lefties. While Wacha has been excellent at limiting home runs, we like Carpenter's value at +480. We set his line at +410 to homer. Use the BetMGM bonus code to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses.  

Junior Caminero, Rays (+340, DraftKings)

We're going back to Caminero again today. He's a strong bet against right-handed pitchers, with 28 of his 39 HRs coming against them. Nationals' SP Brad Lord has been solid as a reliever but more vulnerable as a starter, giving up 7 HRs in 13 starts and allowing a .280 batting average when starting compared to .217 in relief. We set Caminero's line at +215 to homer, so you're getting value from this price at DraftKings, which is offering $300 in bonus bets plus $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket thanks to the latest DraftKings promo code.

Where to bet MLB props on Sunday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday: 

More MLB picks for Sunday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 61-44 roll (+1286) on MLB picks.