Free MLB home run picks, odds for August 28: Juan Soto among best bets for Thursday HR player props

The New York Mets capped off a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies with a 6-0 win on Wednesday, trimming the Phillies' NL East lead to four games. New York leads the majors with 111 runs since Aug. 10, and star slugger Juan Soto has seven home runs since the beginning of the month. Soto went yard against the Braves last Friday, giving him 32 homers overall this season. He is +330 to homer against the Marlins in the Thursday MLB odds, which is one of the HR picks that SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is targeting. 

They have also revealed two more MLB home run bets for Thursday's MLB schedule, which features eight games. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 53.75 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Matt Wallner (+425) and Zachary Neto (+460) to homer on Tuesday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 28:

• Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+400)
• Juan Soto, Mets (+330)
• Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+370)
• Parlay these picks for +9350 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/28

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+400, FanDuel)

Chisholm has struggled on the road this season, but we still like him in this spot because he's facing a RHP. He has an .899 OPS and 23 of his 25 HRs this season against right-handed pitchers. Left-handed batters have a solid .785 OPS against Davis Martin this season, and Martin has just 29 strikeouts to 21 walks when facing lefties—another reason we like Chisholm's value here. We set the line at +315 for Chisholm to homer, so you're getting value from this price at FanDuel.

Juan Soto, Mets (+330, FanDuel)

Adam Mazur has only pitched in 9 career games, but left-handed batters are hitting .321 with a 1.020 OPS against him over that sample. Soto has a .956 OPS against RHPs this season and has hit 25 of his 32 HRs against them. We have fair value here and set Soto's line at +330, but this is a favorable matchup with good weather conditions expected tonight. You can get over $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins when you bet $5 using the latest FanDuel promo code:

Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+370, DraftKings)

We're going with a "he's due" approach for Cruz, who's due both in general and specifically against Mikolas. Cruz's batting average is down to .203, largely because he's hitting just .110 with a .409 OPS against left-handed pitchers. While he hasn't been great against righties either, he's hit 17 of his 18 HRs against them. We set Cruz's line at +360 to homer, and you can bet this prop at DraftKings, where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly and over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket with the latest DraftKings promo code:

Where to bet MLB props on Thursday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday: 

More MLB picks for Thursday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 58-40 roll (+1422) on MLB picks.