Free MLB home run picks, odds for August 21: Pete Alonso among best bets for Thursday HR player props

Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has allowed 17 home runs this season and has an 8.13 ERA across his last six starts, which does not bode well for him heading into a matchup with the Mets during the Thursday MLB schedule. Mets slugger Pete Alonso has already homered against Gore once in his career, and Alonso has 28 homers this year. He is +375 to go yard in the Thursday MLB odds, which is one of the HR bets that SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is targeting. Alonso has homered six times this month, and this is a favorable price against a struggling pitcher. 

The Inside the Lines team is also backing Tyler Soderstrom and Alec Burleson with their MLB HR props on Thursday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $150 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 58.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Eugenio Suarez (+400) to homer on Wednesday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog and also see the model's MLB picks for Brewers vs. Cubs. 

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 21:

• Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (+430)
• Pete Alonso, Mets (+375)
• Alec Burleson, Cardinals (+525)
• Parlay these picks for +14743 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/21

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (+430, FanDuel)

Soderstrom homered in yesterday's game against the Twins, and we actually have better value for him to homer today compared to yesterday. He now has at least one hit in his last 17 games started and is having a strong season against RHPs, with 20 of his 23 HRs and an .878 OPS. Despite Jose Urena coming off a strong start, he's historically been more vulnerable against left-handed hitters. We like this matchup of the hot-hitting Soderstrom vs. Urena and set Soderstrom's line at +330. Use the latest FanDuel promo code, where new users can get $300 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins:

Pete Alonso, Mets (+375, BetMGM)

The wind is blowing inward in Washington today, which is likely why this price is available for Alonso. Still, Alonso is powerful enough to get the ball through the wind if he gets a hold of it. He's just 2-18 in his career against MacKenzie Gore, but one of those hits was a HR. Alonso has also struck out just twice in 19 plate appearances against Gore, so he puts the ball in play. Gore has given up 17 HRs this season—12 of them to right-handed batters—and has struggled in the second half, posting an 8.13 ERA over his last 6 starts compared to a 3.02 ERA in his first 19. We set Alonso's line close to +300 when factoring in the weather. Use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

Alec Burleson, Cardinals (+525, BetMGM)

The Rays are coming off two games against the Yankees in which the Yankees tied an MLB record with 14 homers over two games. A big reason for that was the hitter-friendly conditions at Steinbrenner Field. Burleson is having a solid season with a .786 OPS and 15 HRs, including 12 of those against right-handed pitchers. Rays' SP Joe Boyle has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts, with opponents batting .333 and posting a 1.401 OPS over those outings. While Boyle has been nearly unhittable at home, the sample size is small, and we're not reading too much into it. We set Burleson's line around +500, but factoring in the hitter-friendly conditions, there's likely even more value, making this a strong play with the listed price at BetMGM -- where you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first wager loses:

Where to bet MLB props on Thursday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday: 

More MLB picks for Thursday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on a 103-99-2 roll (+1185) on MLB picks.