Dodgers vs. Phillies: What to expect from Shohei Ohtani's MLB playoff pitching debut

The Los Angeles Dodgers will resume their postseason run on Saturday, when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. On paper, this has the potential to be one of, if not the defining series of the tournament. The Dodgers and the Phillies are two of the best teams in the majors, and both roster a horde of All-Star talents. The only downside, really, is that this series is capped at five games because of when it takes place.

Beyond the quality of expected play, there's another reason that Saturday's Game 1 will be treated as a Big Deal: it'll mark the career postseason pitching debut of Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani. 

Ohtani, 31, never did reach the playoffs during his time with the Los Angeles Angels. He first appeared in October as a member of the Dodgers last fall, but at the time he was recovering from elbow surgery that limited him only to hitting. The Dodgers worked him back into pitching throughout the summer, starting him 14 times and watching as he compiled a 2.87 ERA and a 6.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio while averaging just over three innings per assignment. 

Shohei Ohtani

LAD • DH • #17

ERA2.87

WHIP1.04

IP47

BB9

K62

View Profile

Ohtani, who also generated a 179 OPS+ this season as a hitter, wasn't needed on the bump during the Dodgers' Wild Card Series sweep against the Cincinnati Reds. Now, though, the Dodgers are calling upon him to deliver in a pivotal spot if they want to repeat as World Series champions.

Ohtani threw 91 pitches over six innings in his final start of the regular season, and, in terms of workload, the Dodgers said they're planning to treat him like a "normal starting pitcher" in October.

Just what should you expect from Ohtani on Saturday night? Below, I've broken down the differences in Ohtani's pitching from this year vs. 2023, as well as how he attacked the Phillies lineup during his penultimate regular season outing.

Let's get to it.

1. More velocity among arsenal tweaks

You're in for a different experience if you haven't watched Ohtani pitch since his Angels days.

For one, Ohtani is throwing harder than he did back then. Whereas his four-seamer clocked in at 96.8 mph in 2023, he's averaged 98.4 to date. He's added both horizontal and vertical life to his four-seamer, and he's altered his release point by moving closer toward third base and slightly reducing his arm angle. Oh, and Ohtani has prioritized his four-seamer by making it his primary offering. For context, his usage rate has increased from 32.9% to 38.6%.

For another, the Dodgers have clearly worked with Ohtani to leverage his arsenal depth. When he was last with the Angels, he was throwing more than 60% fastballs and sweepers whether or not he possessed the platoon advantage. He's still spamming right-handers with that combination these days, but he has a more nuanced plan of attack whenever he's facing lefties:

For those counting, Ohtani throws five different pitches at least 10% of the time against lefties and four different pitches at least 10% of the time versus righties. He varies his looks well, but don't mistake him for a random number generator. There's a clear logic underpinning those tendencies. Studies have shown that verticality is more important against opposite-handed batters. It tracks that Ohtani ups his curveball and splitter rates when he's facing a lefty. Likewise, he really leans into the horizontal elements of his arsenal, including his sinker, when he's tasked with a righty.

Beyond the rationale, you have to appreciate Ohtani's pure pitching talent. You won't find many hurlers who: 1) sit in the upper 90s; 2) throw pitches that regularly break into each of the four quadrants; and 3) reliably locate the strike zone. When you view him from that perspective, it's easy to understand why he's such a capable pitcher in addition to being a great hitter.

With all that established, you might wonder: is there anything to take away from Ohtani's recent start against the Phillies?

2. Last time against Phillies

For reference, Ohtani's second-to-last regular season start came against the Phillies. On Sept. 16, he threw five no-hit innings, punching out five of the 16 batters he faced and issuing just one walk. 

The Dodgers surely had a notion they might face the Phillies soon in the postseason, so it stands to reason that Ohtani's approach in that game may differ from what he uses on Saturday. In other words, it may behoove the Phillies to not overindex on that particular night as they prepare for Game 1.

Still, it's interesting to note that Ohtani took a fastball-heavy approach against the Phillies, to the extent that it was one of just four appearances that saw him throw more than 50% heaters. Two of the other three outings came within his first few weeks of returning to the mound, meaning that they were the pitching equivalent of running sprints. 

If you only glance at the pitch chart, it looks like Ohtani was trying to bust Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber inside with his fastball. Reviewing the tape reveals a different story. Ohtani's intent was to deliver the pitches away, but he yanked them inside. The process may have been suboptimal, yet the results were sterling. The funny thing about pitching is that today's mistake can become tomorrow's key to success. Even if Ohtani didn't mean to go right at Harper and Schwarber like that, it's possible that accidentally doing so -- and getting away with it -- may embolden him to try it with intent in Game 1. 

Whatever the case, one thing about Ohtani's pitching debut is certain: it's going to be one of October's most-anticipated moments, no matter what happens.