Can Cal Raleigh break Aaron Judge's home run record? Predicting whether Mariners slugger will make MLB history

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh made history on Sunday when he slugged his 48th and 49th home runs of the season. His 49th homer established a new single-season record for a catcher, breaking a tie with Kansas City Royals stalwart Salvador Perez (48 in 2021). Raleigh added his 50th homer of the season for good measure on Monday.

"It doesn't seem real," Raleigh told reporters, including MLB.com, on Monday. "I mean, 50 home runs. It's kind of a crazy number to think of. I thought I was a cool player when I hit five when I was young in high school or something. You hit five, you had all this power in the world. So it's just crazy."

Perez (2021) and Hall of Famer Johnny Bench (45 in 1970 and 40 in 1972) are the only primary catchers to lead the majors in home runs. No other player has more than 45 home runs this season, which means Raleigh is well positioned to join Perez and Bench in that very exclusive club with a month left to play.

With the catcher home run record secure, Raleigh can now turn his attention to another record: Aaron Judge's American League single-season home run record. The New York Yankees captain set the record with 62 home runs in 2022, 61 years after Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's record with 61 home runs in 1961. Here is the single-season home run leaderboard:

1. Barry Bonds: 73 in 2001
2. Mark McGwire: 70 in 1998
3. Sammy Sosa: 66 in 1998
4. Mark McGwire: 65 in 1999
5. Sammy Sosa: 64 in 2001
6. Sammy Sosa: 63 in 1999
7. Aaron Judge: 62 in 2022

Catching Bonds would take a Herculean effort, but hey, stranger things have happened. After all, no catcher had ever hit 50 home runs in a season until Raleigh this year, and he still has plenty of time to add to his total. He's already done something special. Why can't he keep doing special things and catch Bonds?

For now, we'll focus on Judge and the AL's single-season home run record. Here's where Raleigh stands relative to Judge, and what he has to do to catch him.

Pace through 132 team games

Raleigh is chasing Judge's record and the Mariners are chasing Judge's Yankees in the standings. The Mariners are 71-61 this season, a half-game behind the Yankees for the second wild card spot, though that doesn't really matter right now. We're only concerned with the home run record. Seattle has played 132 team games. Here's where Judge stood at the same point in 2022:

Raleigh is right there with Judge, only one homer behind his pace. In a race like this though, one home run is a lot. Judge was on pace for 63 home runs through 132 games in 2022, so he actually slowed down the rest of the way. Raleigh is on pace for 61 home runs. He has to pick things up to catch Judge's record, let alone break it.

Judge went deep in Games 133, 134, 135, and 136 in 2022. He hit only -- "only" -- seven home runs in New York's final 26 games of the season though, largely because teams stopped pitching to him. Judge walked 29 times in those final 26 games. Officially, only six of the 29 were intentional, though a great many were of the unintentionally intentional variety.

What Raleigh has to do

Well, Raleigh has to hit 13 home runs in Seattle's final 30 games to break the record. That math is easy. Raleigh has hit 11 homers in his last 30 games, so if he continues at that pace over the last month, he'll fall short of Judge's record. He has, however, hit as many as 17 home runs in a 30-game span this season. Here are his most productive 30-game stretches in his four full seasons:

• 2025: 17 HR (May 21 to June 24)
• 2024: 11 HR (July 9 to Aug. 16)
• 2023: 12 HR (July 22 to Aug. 25)
• 2022: 9 HR (Aug. 23 to Oct. 4)

This season is the only one in which Raleigh has hit as many home runs as he needs to break Judge's record in a 30-game span. And that's good. 2024 Raleigh is not trying to break Judge's record. 2025 Raleigh is, and a few months back he clubbed 17 homers in a 30-game span. (For whatever it's worth, Judge's best 30-game span in 2022 was also 17 home runs.)

At some point, Raleigh figures to run into the same problem as Judge in September 2022. Teams will stop pitching to him. It hasn't happened yet -- Raleigh's 12 intentional walks are "only" fourth most in baseball, well behind Judge's MLB-leading 29 -- but the switch could flip at any moment. In fact, teams are already beginning to throw him fewer pitches in the zone:

Only 44.5% of the pitches Raleigh has seen this month have been in the strike zone, including 47.8% in hitters counts. Those numbers were 48.0% and 53.6% from April through July, respectively. Translation: Pitchers are throwing Raleigh fewer pitches in the zone in general, and especially when they fall behind in the count. They're giving him less to hit now.

The schedule could work in Raleigh's favor. The Mariners have two games left with the San Diego Padres this weekend, then only two of their final eight series are against clear-cut postseason contenders: Houston Astros from Sept. 19-21 and Los Angeles Dodgers from Sept 26-28. The Dodgers series is the final series of the season. They might have everything clinched by then.

With relatively few games against postseason contenders remaining, Raleigh could see more pitches to hit in September because hey, what are those teams playing for, right? That said, no one likes to be on the wrong side of history. I suspect Raleigh will see fewer pitches in the zone in September than he has in any month of his career. That will make it tough to break Judge's record.

He's chasing another record too

Raleigh already has the catcher single-season home run record and he's chasing Judge's AL single-season home run record. There is another record he's closing in on too, one he'll get to along the way if he catches Judge. Raleigh also has a chance to set the single-season home run record for a switch-hitter. As it stands, this is only the third 50-homer season by a switch-hitter.

Here is the most home runs in a season by a switch-hitter:

1. Mickey Mantle: 54 in 1961
2. Mickey Mantle: 52 in 1956
3. Cal Raleigh: 50 in 2025 (and counting)
4. Lance Berkman: 45 in 2006
5. Chipper Jones: 45 in 1999

Raleigh could catch Mantle by the end of the week. It really is remarkable. A catcher, with all that wear and tear on his body (Raleigh's 865 ⅔ innings caught are third most in baseball) has hit 50 home runs for the first time ever, and he did it while playing home games in a terrible home park for home runs. (Statcast has T-Mobile Park in the bottom third of the league for homers.)

Breaking Judge's record would be the icing on the cake of a season that is already historic and one of the best in baseball history. No catcher had ever hit for this kind of power before, and it's possible it may never happen in our lifetimes.