As Jacob deGrom faces the Mets for the first time, examining the two-time Cy Young winner's Hall of Fame case

Jacob deGrom is returning to Citi Field, this time as the starting pitcher for the visiting team for the first time in his career. The former  Mets ace and two-time Cy Young winner, who signed a five-year deal with the Rangers prior to the 2023 season, will get the ball Friday as the Rangers kick off a three-game series.

There's no doubt that deGrom is one of the best pitchers of his generation and that his peak -- 2018 through his injury in 2021 -- was Hall of Fame-caliber. Injuries have really done a number on deGrom's Cooperstown case, though, and he was a bit of a late bloomer, as he didn't debut until his age-26 season. As he finally gets in another full season of work, his first since 2019, is deGrom back on track in terms of building a Hall of Fame résumé? 

If you only look at the rate stats, there's no doubt deGrom is good enough. He has a 2.55 ERA (153 ERA+) and has pitched to a 2.20 ERA (178 ERA+) since the start of the 2018 season. Among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched, deGrom is second in ERA to Clayton Kershaw (and close enough that he could pass him this year), first in WHIP (0.988), first in FIP (2.69) and has the lowest hit rate (6.9 hits per nine innings). 

There's more. 

deGrom is third all-time in strikeout rate behind Blake Snell and Chris Sale with 10.846 strikeouts per nine innings. In strikeout-to-walk rate, his is the all-time leader at 5.35. That 153 ERA+? Among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings, it sits sixth all-time behind Mariano Rivera, Bill Foster, Bullet Rogan, Kershaw and Pedro Martinez.

The hardware is plenty. As noted, deGrom has two Cy Youngs. He also has a Rookie of the Year and four trips to the All-Star Game. 

Postseason performance is on point, as deGrom is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 31 innings in five playoff starts. 

Some people don't care for this, but I sometimes circle back to the "feel" factor. That is, when you watched the player -- mostly during his prime -- did he feel like a Hall of Famer? There's no doubt you felt like you were watching the greatness on a Hall of Fame level when deGrom took the mound from 2018-21, but I also think you could argue it never went away and it still feels like that. Injuries derailed him, but he still exudes greatness when he takes the mound. 

Take this season. deGrom had so many questions coming off only three starts in 2024 as he returned from Tommy John surgery. He's responded by putting up a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 169 strikeouts in 155 ⅔ innings. He won't win the Cy Young, but he's probably going to finish third or fourth. He's 37 years old. 

That's Hall of Fame level greatness. 

So what's the problem? 

Well, I'm guessing you already knew we were about to drop the hammer here. 

It's the counting stats. Due, again, to deGrom's late start and injury woes, his start in Citi Field Friday against his former team will be the 246th of his career. As a contemporary comparison, Kershaw has made 448 starts. 

As such, deGrom's 1,522 ⅔ innings, 1,835 strikeouts and especially 95 wins (against only 64 losses, mind you!) look very light compared to current Hall of Fame starting pitchers. 

At a bare minimum, I think deGrom has to get to 2,000 strikeouts and 100 wins before we start talking, but that shouldn't be a problem for him.

Racking up wins is becoming increasingly less important for starting pitchers in this era, but I firmly believe the voting body as a whole would be taken aback by double-digit wins. The lowest current win total for a modern, full-time MLB starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame is Dizzy Dean at 151. Sandy Koufax won 165. 

Those are peak Hall of Famers: players who were so awesome for such a short period of time that falling short of traditional counting stat benchmarks wasn't held against them in the vote. Johan Santana, a similar peak candidate, fell short while Félix Hernández drew 20.6% in his first time on the ballot.

The standards for starting pitchers in this day and age need to be loosened a bit, otherwise we're going to be stuck with too many position players and too few pitchers for several decades. I've been writing about this since 2016. Santana was a casualty, but maybe Hernández eventually gets in. If he does, perhaps it helps pave the way for deGrom? 

Let's take a look at the rate stats of Dean, Koufax, Santana and Hernandez against where deGrom currently sits. 

I've long believed Koufax got a special exemption among voters at the time due to his ridiculous final five seasons, in which he won five ERA titles, three Cy Youngs and an MVP, not to mention two World Series rings (his second and third) and two World Series MVPs. 

What this chart shows, however, is that on a rate basis, deGrom measures up. I think we can say that deGrom is certainly better than Dean. There have been pushes for Santana to get a chance on the Era Committee votes and for Hernández on the BBWAA vote. DeGrom is inarguably better than both according to our chart.

Now, the counting stats ... 

There's always context behind every era. To underline the point, Dean played in an era where strikeouts were far less prevalent than they were in deGrom's era. Dean actually led the majors in strikeouts four times. He also racked up a ton of innings in a short time period and only made 230 starts (317 total appearances). Almost all his wins were achieved in a six-year period (he won 133 games from 1932-37 and otherwise only won 17). DeGrom plays in an era where pitcher wins don't even come remotely close to the old days, but the strikeout rates dwarf them. And let's not forget how often he got screwed out of wins because his Mets teammates forgot how to score runs. 

Overall, it's a tough comparison, but I think we can rather easily separate out Koufax as the top peak candidate ever. The case, then, is that deGrom should be next among these five. 

In terms of the cumulative, catch-all stats, here's WAR (and keep in mind that deGrom is still pitching and still under contract through 2027): 

• Koufax, 53.1
• Santana, 51.1
• Hernández, 49.8  
• deGrom, 47.9
• Dean, 43.9

And now JAWS: 

• Santana, 48.3
• Koufax, 47.5
• Hernández, 44.1  
• deGrom, 43.8
• Dean, 41.7

Look, there's still work to be done, but Jacob deGrom is one of the greatest rate stat pitchers ever, especially when compared to his peers. He's continuing to build a Hall of Fame case by pushing up those counting stat totals. Meanwhile, voters are starting the loosening of standards for starting pitchers as an adjustment to how they are utilized these days. 

My hunch is he'll be in Cooperstown. It probably won't be first ballot, but hopefully it doesn't take an Era Committee. My official prediction is he's headed there eventually.