Alex Bregman free agency: Pros and cons, contract prediction, landing spots and more for star third baseman

Once again, All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman will test the free agent market this offseason after being unable to land a long-term contract last offseason. Bregman settled for a three-year, $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox that included opt outs after each season. He used that opt out earlier this month and is walking away from two years and $80 million.

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R.J. Anderson

We ranked Bregman, 32 in March, as the second-best free agent available this offseason, behind only Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker. Here's what we wrote:

Bregman, one of the last notable free agents to sign last winter, showed no ill effects of being left in the cold. He kept alive his streak of having never finished worse than 15% above the league-average hitter, and for the first time in his career, he joined the 90-90 club -- that is, a 90% in-zone contact rate and a 90 mph average exit velocity. Bregman can still pick it at third base, too. It's fair to wonder how his pull-happy slugging would play in a less favorable home offensive environment than the ones he's haunted to date, but he's a good player who ought to land a better contract than three years and $120 million this go around.

Bregman's lone (at least so far) season in Boston was quite productive. He slashed .273/.360/.462 with 28 doubles and 18 home runs in 114 games around a quad injury while also playing strong third base defense. It should be noted, however, that Bregman was not nearly the same hitter after the injury: .938 OPS in 52 games before and a .724 OPS in 63 games after.

The overall body of work, as well as the all-around skills and outstanding track record, again make Bregman one of the top free agents on the market. Will that be enough to get the long-term contract that wasn't available last offseason? Let's break down Bregman's game and his free agency outlook.

1. Strengths

There really isn't a glaring hole in Bregman's game. He's a below-average baserunner and not particularly speedy, and that's really it. If you're going to be below average at something, baserunning is a good thing to below average at. The overall impact on the game isn't nearly as large as offense or defense.

Bregman does just about everything you want in a hitter. He has terrific plate discipline and contact skills, giving him a chance to walk more than he strikes out in a given season (he's had more walks than strikeouts four times). Bregman provides tough, grind-it-out at-bats that often result in a ball in play, usually in the air too. That's the best kind of contact.

Even at age 31, Bregman set new career highs in average exit velocity (90.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (44.4%) this season, numbers that are better than the MLB averages (89.4 mph and 40.9%). So, the total package on offense is great plate discipline and a lot of hard contact in the air. Bregman is an extra-base hit machine, he batters lefties, and he's a demon in high-leverage at-bats.

The defense, even with some age-related decline appearing to set in, remains comfortably above average. If there is such a thing as a "clutch" defender, it's Bregman. He has a great internal clock and a knack for making big plays in big situations. The Red Sox toyed with moving him to second base, and while it didn't happen, Bregman has the skills to make it work.

There's also the intangibles. Bregman is big-game and postseason battle-tested after all those years with the Houston Astros, and he's the kind of hitter who helps his teammates improve through his own mental scouting of the opponent. Bregman still has a high-end skill set and he's shown he can perform under the game's brightest lights.

2. Weaknesses

The biggest concern with Bregman is his age. He'll turn 32 during spring training and that's usually when decline starts to set in, especially for a smaller player (5-foot-11 and 190 lbs.). They can have trouble holding up under the rigors of a 162-game season (plus postseason). Only 34 primary third basemen have put up even 10 WAR after their age-31 season. To be sure, Bregman is more Graig Nettles and Scott Rolen than Vinny Castilla and Todd Frazier, but the aging curve at third base can be harsh.

Offensively, Bregman has always pulled the ball in the air a great deal, which a) has contributed to his production because pulled fly balls are the most dangerous batted balls, and b) makes him better suited for some ballparks than others. Bregman is a smart hitter who can hit to the opposite field, though he is most dangerous when he pulls the ball, and not every park is built for him. What is now called Daikin Park in Houston was perfect for him. So was Fenway Park. Other stadiums? Not so much.

The baserunning is a drawback but not a dealbreaker. You live with the lack of stolen bases and first-to-thirds to get the bat and the glove. The biggest weakness is not a flaw with Bregman's skills, necessarily. It's age. Sign him to a multi-year contract this offseason and you're signing him into his mid-to-late 30s, which means you will buy decline years in bulk.

3. Contract prediction

The best free agent comparison to Bregman is Josh Donaldson, who signed a four-year deal worth $90 million with the Minnesota Twins going into his age-34 season. Add two years to account for the difference in age, and Bregman and agent Scott Boras could set their sights on a six-year contract worth $135 million. Factor in five years of inflation, and $150 million could be in play, easy.

Freddie Freeman is a first base-only player and he signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers going into his age-32 season. Different positions, obviously, but Freeman then and Bregman now were same age with the same status as an All-Star player with a great track record. If nothing else, Freeman's contract suggests our six-year, $150 million estimate is in the ballpark Bregman.

Bregman left two years at $40 million a pop on the table when he opted out. He may not (very likely won't) get $40 million per year with his next contract, but he should be able to beat $80 million total. That's the number that matters. Six years and $150 million is about what Bregman and Boras can seek this offseason. It's not an unreasonable number.

4. Potential suitors

Four teams immediately jump to mind. One, the Red Sox, where Bregman fit so perfectly this season. After trading Rafael Devers, Boston does not have anyone to plug in at third base, and his righty bat is needed to balance their lefty-heavy lineup. Also, Fenway Park is perfectly suited for his swing. Opting out does not mean Bregman is a goner. It just means he wants more money. A return to the Red Sox makes sense for him and the team.

Two, the New York Mets, who have several third base candidates (Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos) but perhaps no actual third baseman. The Mets could let first baseman Pete Alonso walk in free agency. Bregman would not be a 1 to 1 replacement for Alonso given their positions, but he would allow them to put Vientos at first, which would massively improve their infield defense. He's also a legitimate middle-of-the-order right-handed bat like Alonso. The Mets are a strong fit too.

Three, the Tigers, who have a manager Bregman knows well (A.J. Hinch) and the flexibility to add a third baseman (Colt Keith could slide back to second). Gleyber Torres is a free agent this offseason and he gave Detroit a needed righty bat and plate discipline, something Bregman also provides, only better. He would also improve their defense. The Tigers figure to prioritize a Tarik Skubal extension, but they can do two things at once, right? Bregman makes sense for Detroit and vice versa.

And four, the Toronto Blue Jays, who could lose Bo Bichette to free agency. If that happens, the Blue Jays could easily put Andrés Giménez at shortstop, shift Ernie Clement from third to second, and install Bregman at third. He's a better all-around player than Bichette and fits Toronto's preferred profile of elite defense.

The Philadelphia Phillies might be No. 5 here. Indications are they will shake things up offensively. Replacing Alec Bohm with Bregman would qualify.

Other contenders like the Cubs (Matt Shaw) and the New York Yankees (Ryan McMahon) found their third basemen in 2025, but I suppose we can't rule them out on Bregman. The Seattle Mariners seem disinclined to hand out a big free-agent contract this winter. Bregman would improve the roster after their spirited run to Game 7 of the ALCS though.