ALDS Game 3 best bets: Julio Rodríguez stays hot for Mariners in Detroit, Blue Jays send Yankees packing
Let's grab some gambling action for Tuesday's ALDS
By
Matt Snyder
•
2 min read
Welcome to Day 3 of what looks like it'll be a labor of love for the rest of the playoffs. We went 3-0 on Sunday and then 1-1 on Monday. Let's try to make this one a little more Sunday than Monday. We have the two ALDS games, which will be Game 3 of the Mariners-Tigers series and Game 3 of the Blue Jays-Yankees series, serving as the nightcap.
Lines today are courtesy of DraftKings.
Mariners over 3.5 runs (-135)
A good number of teams hit better at home. We're trained to see that most teams generally perform better at home. The Mariners' offense, however, is much better once it escapes the pitcher-friendly yard at T-Mobile Park. Check out the Mariners' splits:
At home: .229/.308/.393, 352 runs
On road: .259/.332/.444, 414 runs
That's 4.34 runs per game at home and 5.11 on the road. We only need to get four here.
Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the Tigers and while he was better at home this season, he wasn't very impressive anywhere. The Mariners saw him in Detroit on July 13 and scored eight runs that game. Only two were against Flaherty in five innings, but keep in mind they've seen a lot of the Tigers' lackluster bullpen so far this series.
Julio Rodríguez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-126)
Rodríguez is coming off a game-winning RBI double in Game 2 and he was 3 for 5 with a home run in Game 1. He hit .290/.341/.560 in the second half and, again, keep in mind how pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park is. On the road this season, he hit .296/.341/.571 with 20 doubles, 23 home runs, 60 RBI and 64 runs in 80 games. Too bad he doesn't get to play home games somewhere else, right?
Rodríguez has also enjoyed great success in his career at Detroit's Comerica Park. In 11 games there, he's hit .381/.490/.833 with four doubles, five home runs, 13 RBI and 16 runs.
He's also in a nice lineup spot for runs and RBI, sitting third behind Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh and with good lumber behind him.
Blue Jays +123
I think Carlos Rodón can probably have a pretty good outing against the Blue Jays' offense, especially since they aren't in Rogers Centre for this game. The Jays hit better at home, as noted above, like many teams do. They aren't terrible on the road, though, having hit .260/.327/.407 on the road this season. The Yankees' bullpen is in atrocious shape, too, so Rodón has a small margin of error and needs to get very deep into the game to give the Yankees a shot.
I just think they are cooked here and love the plus money. Shane Bieber throws well enough to keep it close while the Blue Jays' offense provides a late charge to get over the finish line here.
