2025 MLB playoffs: How Brewers can rally from 2-0 NLCS deficit vs. Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers

With Tuesday's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, the Milwaukee Brewers now find themselves down by a 2-0 margin in the best-of-seven set. The Brewers, the team with the best record during Major League Baseball's regular season, will now have to defy overwhelming odds to advance to their first World Series since 1982.

How deep of a hole are the Brewers in? MLB teams that have trailed 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have an all-time record of 15-78, according to WhoWins. That's roughly an 84% elimination rate. Of course, the Brewers needn't worry themselves with empirical data, lest this become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

"The one thing is you guys might have us counted out. And I understand that. Ninety percent of the teams that have been in this situation don't win the series. But this team has been counted out a lot this year. And I think there's some fight left in them," manager Pat Murphy said after Game 2. "It will be a little tougher path doing it on the road, but we swept the Dodgers earlier in the year on the road. So at least there's some capability. I know the Dodgers weren't the same team then. But 10 times this year we've won four in a row so that's also a possibility."

How can the Brewers turn that possibility into an inevitability? Here are three keys.

1. Get into Dodgers bullpen

Coming into the NLCS, I noted that the series would be determined by exposure. These teams employ contrasting approaches to their pitching staffs: the Dodgers were always going to leverage their impressive rotation to avoid their bullpen, while the Brewers were always going to do the inverse. Past studies have shown that pitchers perform worse the more often they see the same hitter, in a game or in a series, and so that effect would ultimately dictate the winner.

So far, the Dodgers have prevailed, with starters Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto resembling something out of Event Horizon to the Brewers lineup. Those two have combined for 17 innings of one-run ball, all the while surrendering four hits and a walk. The Brewers' pathway won't get easier, either, as the Dodgers are able to turn to Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow for starts. 

Milwaukee's best hope is finding a way into the Dodgers' volatile bullpen earlier in the game. 

That's easier said than done, of course. Unlike many of their contemporaries, the Dodgers seem willing to let their starters tackle six-plus innings each time out, even if it's out of necessity. Meanwhile, the Brewers haven't been able to generate enough traffic to lure Dave Roberts into an early hook, in part because they've played into the Dodgers' hands of making questionable swing decisions. 

"Offensively you've got to grind out at-bats," Murphy said. "That's been our forte. The ball-strike has been really at the core of our offensive success, and sometimes great pitching brings out the worst in you."

Somehow, be it through pitch count or run tally, the Brewers are going to have to force that decision heading forward. They have to -- have to -- make this Dodgers bullpen carry its weight if they're going to successfully push this series into a Game 6 and/or Game 7.

2. Stick to plans versus Ohtani, Betts

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of this series for the Brewers is that they've done an excellent job hampering the top of the Dodgers lineup. Shohei Ohtani will enter Game 3 wearing a 1-for-7 start, while Mookie Betts has yet to collect a hit in his first seven at-bats. 

The other members of the Dodgers lineup have picked up the slack, but the Brewers would've gladly taken their performance against Ohtani and Betts -- and probably would've expected to have at least split the series to date. Don't take my word for it, either.

"If I would have told you that the Dodgers were going to score seven runs in two games, and what was the outcome in the first two games, I'd say there's a chance we win one of them for sure," Murphy said.

Coming into the NLCS, I wrote the following: "It wouldn't be much of a departure, then, if manager Pat Murphy and the front office formulated a gameplan where Ohtani is either facing [Freddy] Peralta, a high-leverage reliever like Abner Uribe or Trevor Megill, or one of those aforementioned lefties." Sure enough, Ohtani has taken 10 trips to the plate. He's faced Peralta, Uribe or Megill, or Aaron Ashby, Jared Koenig, or Robert Gasser in seven of those plate appearances.

As for Betts, the Brewers have done a great job of ensuring he can't get too comfortable at the plate. Through the first two games, he's seen: 11 sinkers, 11 four-seamers, six changeups, four cutters, three sliders, and a curveball. They've mixed and matched and pitched him both down and away and up and in. So far, it's worked -- even if the Brewers haven't been rewarded with a win.

3. Get lucky

There's no way around it. The Brewers need to catch some breaks if they're going to overcome the odds. Those can manifest in a number of ways, ranging from some fortunate hits of their own to robbing the Dodgers on some well-struck balls and beyond.

I don't think it's all that likely to materialize, but one obvious possibility at hand would have Ohtani carry some of his offensive woes to the mound with him. In turn, Ohtani would have a rough, abbreviated start that could provide an opening for the Brewers.

Again, I don't think it's all that likely. Ohtani has demonstrated time and again that he's mentally resilient and more than capable of compartmentalizing his game. But, if you're the Brewers, all you have right now is unconditional hope that you can win four of the next five games.