Who will win 2026 PGA Championship? Scottie Scheffler ahead of schedule, Rory McIlroy eyeing redemption

The 2026 PGA Championship marks the tournament's 108th playing for the Wanamaker Trophy but only the second held at Aronimink Golf Club. Making its return to the Philadelphia suburbs for the first time since Gary Player claimed the crown in 1962, the PGA Championship will look much different this week than it did back then.

When Player won, it was only the fifth iteration of the tournament contested in the stroke-play format and the first in which the championship host course was put on the trophy rather than the professional's home course. Known for its match-play style of competition until 1957, the PGA Championship switched because it had lost money the year prior.

During its run of match-play tournaments, however, one man stood above the rest: Walter Hagen. He won his first in 1921 and then rattled off four straight PGA Championship triumphs from 1924-27, this year's playing marking 100 years since the middle of that run.

The number four has its parallels with this championship, especially this week. The PGA Championship was once the fourth major on the calendar before the schedule moved the competition from August to May. Dubbed "Glory's Last Shot," the PGA Championship was the final opportunity of the season for players to accomplish lifelong dreams.

Like with the move from match play to stroke play, the PGA Championship's move in the calendar may have changed its identity. Still, it represents a week, a tournament and a time when history can be made.

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick have clearly separated from the other 150 or so in the field at the start of the 2026 season. They have won and placed in bunches, and it sure appears as if one will claim the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Slow down, though, because if the PGA Championship has taught us anything through its 100 years of history, it is that right when something appears as such, it may have a way of changing. Let's get into these four players and all the storylines from the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club.

Scheffler, season over season

The paper says one thing; the eye test says another. Statistically, Scheffler is experiencing a better (!) start than he put together last season when he went on to win the PGA Championship in runaway fashion. The world No. 1 was struggling with a hand injury at the onset of last year, so a slow start was to be expected, but the numbers were still eye-popping.

In 2025, Scheffler started the year by playing nine tournaments, finishing in the top five in four of them and winning the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek and the Byron Nelson in his final start before the PGA Championship. In 2026, Scheffler has played in nine tournaments, finished inside the top five in six of them and has one victory.

2025 vs. 2026

Eerily similar.

What isn't similar is how it all feels. There seems to be an added frustration about Scheffler on the course that was not there last year. He has always gotten upset by a bad bounce or putt that doesn't break the way he read it, but it's a little more than that.

Scheffler is the first player on the PGA Tour to finish solo runner-up in three straight tournaments. The way he has started events has given him little leeway for mistakes over the weekend. At the halfway point of his last three tournaments, Scheffler was 12 shots behind McIlroy (and six behind the immediate chasing pack) at the Masters, seven behind Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage and seven behind Young at the Cadillac Championship.

Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in overall scoring average, Round 3 scoring average and Round 4 scoring average. He's sixth in Round 2 scoring average but 69th in Round 1 scoring average (still above average at 70.33). He has broken 70 just twice this year in the first round, and in both cases, he lost to no one in regulation (RBC Heritage and the American Express).

McIlroy, one year later

What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago, the discussion around McIlroy was about the weight being lifted from his shoulders after his Masters win, but, ironically, it seemed a weight was added. McIlroy's driver was ruled non-conforming leading up to the championship, which put a damper on his spirits and spoiled two months of his season, with his attitude persisting through the U.S. Open.

McIlroy sounds at ease and excited for what may lie ahead in this third act of his career. He won his first four major championships in a 15-tournament window, struck out in his next 38 appearances and is back to his winning ways with two in his last five tries. He is a far more complete player compared to his initial run of major wins, but the ability to separate and gobble up wins in a short span never left him.

"It feels a lot different. Even winning felt different," McIlroy said ahead of the Truist Championship. "... I felt like winning the grand slam was like this, was going to be this life-changing thing, and in some ways it was, but in other ways I had to remember like, no, I still have a lot of my career left and I want to keep playing and keep competing. 

"So this year, winning was validation for all the work that I've put in over the last few years to get myself back to this place where I'm winning majors. I'm excited for the road ahead. I'm excited for this week, I'm excited for Aronimink next week, Shinnecock, Birkdale, you know, like I feel like if anything I'm more motivated after what happened at Augusta this year than I've ever been."

The (other) top two

Two players who just missed out on a playoff at the PGA Championship four years ago are among the top four players in the world heading into this year's championship: Young and Fitzpatrick. In his championship debut, Young finished a stroke outside the playoff between Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris, while Fitzpatrick needed only a final round of even par to win the tournament in regulation. Instead, he shot 3 over.

If either is in the same position again, expect a different result, as their improvements have brought fruitful results.

Young has The Players Championship and Cadillac Championship under his belt, and he also experienced the final pairing with McIlroy in the final round at the Masters. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick leads the PGA Tour with three wins — one alongside his brother, Alex, and another out of a playoff against the world No. 1.

The American's improvement on the greens has been a hot topic. Young employed his college teammate, Kyle Sterbinsky (who also has ties to Philadelphia), to loop for him last season, and he has been reading his putts ever since, leading to his success.

Fitzpatrick's gains, meanwhile, can be traced back to employing swing coach Mark Blackburn. The Englishman's iron play has soared to new heights thanks to a more upright action, making him one of the most complete players in the game.

Most wins on PGA Tour this season

Touch 'em all

The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale, where Jordan Spieth pulled a rabbit out of a hat in 2017 and raised the Claret Jug. Since claiming the third leg of the career grand slam, Spieth has picked up just two victories on the PGA Tour with his most recent coming in 2022.

Despite some underwhelming play from Spieth, one cannot talk about the PGA Championship without talking at least for a minute about his grand slam aspirations. And look, there have been some positives in his game, too. Spieth is experiencing his best approach season since 2022 and his best overall season since 2021.

Spieth gave himself a late Saturday tee time at the Cadillac Championship, which was something he had not accomplished in quite a while, and he has five top 20 finishes this year. Unfortunately, Spieth has zero such finishes in the PGA Championship in the last six years. But who knows, maybe he pulls that rabbit out of his hat again.

Completing the grand slam

What's that elephant doing on the course?

Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau were arguably the two hottest players in the world heading into the Masters. Rahm has yet to finish outside the top five on LIV Golf this season, while DeChambeau won back-to-back tournaments. The two disappointed at Augusta National, and one month later, their heads must be spinning.

With the news that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund has pulled its financial backing of LIV Golf, the league is in jeopardy. It has funding through the end of the season, continues to frantically shop around looking for long-term capital, and its players are looking at what could possibly be next.

For DeChambeau, he insists a stint as a full-time YouTube golfer could be possible, while Rahm just struck a deal with the DP World Tour, which will allow him back on the European circuit. There's no doubt these two major champions are threats to raise the Wanamaker in a normal year, but this year is not normal, as more than just golf has to be at the forefront of their minds.

The Mink

It's been eight years since Keegan Bradley defeated Justin Rose in a playoff at the BMW Championship amid a rain-drenched week that required a Monday finish. The tournament was the first since Gil Hanse took ownership of the property through a 2015-16 restoration process aimed at restoring the quintessential Donald Ross design.

Hanse attacked the process with a two-pronged approach that centered on bunkering and the green complexes. All 18 greens at Aronimink remain on their original sites with spines running through all of them. The fifth green in particular should be of interest this week as it is the star of the shortest par 3 on the property.

"There are two things I'm really looking forward to with Aronimink in particular. Number one is the elevation changes in certain areas of the property, I think, are going to be a lot of fun to see, and that adds an extra dynamic of distance control. And then the bunkering, I think, is just absolutely marvelous -- that's fairway bunkers and around the greens," said Trevor Imelman, CBS Sports lead golf analyst. "So, we're going to see some very interesting lies with balls up against lips and awkward stances in certain cases. So, I think the bunkers are going to be a true hazard or a true penalty during the PGA Championship."

As for the bunkering, Hanse just about doubled the number of them from the 80 that were laced around the golf course. The footprint of the bunkers did not necessarily change, as large bunkers were split into smaller ones to introduce additional variables.

While he was able to change things with the golf course, what Hanse could not touch was the land itself. Aronimink features holes that play down into a valley, out of the valley, down in the valley and along it, bringing in elevation changes and providing another dynamic for players to weigh.

Past stroke-play tournaments

Maybe there's something here

For all the debate the move to May has sparked about the PGA Championship, what cannot be denied is the list of winners. Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa claimed their first career major titles in this tournament, but they have since gone on to win another, making it so that every PGA Championship winner in the month of May is … a multiple-time major winner.

It has produced worthy champions, even if sometimes the weather has not cooperated or the golf course has been a little bland relative to other major championship tests. There are some theories as to why, but the way the winners (and contenders) have stacked up the ability to hit the driver long and straight is the through line that jumps off the page.

Winners since PGA Championship moved to May

A regime change

Chief championships officer Kerry Haigh has been a mainstay when the PGA of America officials take the stand on Wednesday of the PGA Championship, but he will be flanked by at least another man who has yet to answer questions from the gallery. Terry Clark was named the PGA of America's new CEO in February after Derek Sprague stepped away from the role just one year into his tenure.

Clark comes from UnitedHealth Group and arrives following a less-than-stellar run for the PGA. The organization came out against the golf ball rollback at this championship last year, while introducing PGA president Don Rea to the world. Rea has had his moments since at the Ryder Cup, on the karaoke microphone and on LinkedIn, but reports suggest he will not be on site this week.

Seniority 

The hottest golfer in the world is … probably Nelly Korda. But what about Stewart Cink?! Come on, show the old man some love! He made his way into the field thanks to his win at the Senior PGA Championship earlier this year, which came in the middle of a run that has included four trophies.

Is the soon-to-be 53-year-old going to win the PGA Championship? Probably not, but he finished top 30 in his two lone PGA Championships in May and still has the distance to keep up with the kiddos.

Cink's 2026 season