2026 PGA Championship predictions: Six trends that will determine winner at Aronimink Golf Club

At first glance, it may appear to be an easy task to whittle a field of 156 players down to a list of legitimate contenders for the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. Take away the PGA professionals, past champions and those who have flashed little to no form this calendar year, and you would have yourself a good starting point.

The run of recent major champions would suggest as much, too. It has been hitter after hitter. Rory McIlroy raced to his second straight Masters triumph last month after Scottie Scheffler did the same at both The Open and last year's PGA Championship. Although they won, both McIlroy and Scheffler had to deal with some unlikely contenders en route to their respective victories.

A bounce here or there ... perhaps Russell Henley wins last month's Masters? Scheffler was in a league of his own at the 2025 PGA Championship and fended off Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm in the process, but do you remember who else rounded out that top five at Quail Hollow? Harris English, Davis Riley, J.T. Poston, Taylor Pendrith and Jhonattan Vegas. Not quite your household names.

The point? History is written by the victors, but these championships aren't too many deviations away from looking awfully different. This rings especially true at a major such as the PGA Championship, where the largest field of the season will be welcomed and where the largest number of players likely believe they have a chance at raising the Wanamaker Trophy by week's end.

With all that said, let's see who will actually contend at the 2026 PGA Championship based on six key trends ... 

1. Official World Golf Rankings

A new year has brought a new wrinkle to this trend as those on LIV Golf now earn OWGR points for finishing inside the top 10 of their tournaments. Outside of Phil Mickelson in 2021 (No. 115 in the OWGR), every PGA Championship winner over the last decade has been inside the top 50. Five of those have been inside the top 10 in the world, including the world No. 1 last year. We'll use the top 50 as our cutoff point to get this going.

Eliminated: Those outside the top 50 in the OWGR, notably Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Harry Hall, Alex Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, Dustin Johnson, Michael Thorbjornsen, David Puig, Michael Block

2. Course changes, stakes do not

The PGA Championship has moved in more ways than one over the last 10 years. Not only does the championship rotate golf courses, but it has also moved up from August to May on the calendar. Despite the change, what has stayed the same is that nine of the last 10 champions had a top-20 finish in a prior PGA to their name with the lone exception being Collin Morikawa, who won in his debut appearance (2020).

Eliminated: Sam Stevens, Nico Echavarria, Michael Kim, Matt McCarty, Marco Penge, Jake Knapp, Maverick McNealy, Nicolai Højgaard, Kristoffer Reitan, Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, Chris Gotterup, J.J. Spaun, Ludvig Åberg

3. What have you done for me lately?

In this day and age, major champions rarely pop up unannounced. Even Mickelson had flashed some form before Kiawah! The six-time major champion won a couple of times on the Champions Tour that fall and actually held the first-round lead on the PGA Tour two weeks prior to his victory. Justin Thomas (2017) had already claimed multiple victories, while Koepka (2018, 2023), Morikawa and Scheffler entered the winner's circle within the prior handful of starts. Nine of the last 10 winners had at least one top-five finish under their belt during the calendar year.

Eliminated: Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Alex Noren, Justin Thomas

4. Let's get technical

If finishing positions don't do it for you, strokes-gained data digs even deeper. The last 10 champions all averaged positive strokes gained per round over the prior three months with Mickelson and Jimmy Walker bringing up the rear at +0.43 and +0.04, respectively. When looking at this, it makes sense that they flew in under the radar. 

The same cannot be said for Thomas in 2022 (+2.36), Schauffele in 2024 (+2.75) and Scheffler in 2025 (+3.15). Altogether, this group of champions averaged +1.74 strokes gained per round -- the benchmark we will be utilizing much to the dismay of many potential contenders.

Eliminated: Aaron Rai, Daniel Berger, Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Gerard, Kurt Kitayama, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed, Si Woo Kim, Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Ben Griffin, Sepp Straka, Robert MacIntyre, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood

From a field of 156 hopefuls, only nine players remain … let's see if we can trim that number even more.

5. Speak softly and carry a big stick

Since the championship moved to May, some of the best drivers in the world have fared extremely well -- Koepka, Scheffler and even the likes of DeChambeau and McIlroy, albeit in non-winning fashions. The last 10 champions have averaged +0.52 strokes gained off the tee three months prior to their victories.

Eliminated: Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott

6. Iron it out

Three of the last six winners were gaining more than one stroke per round with their scoring clubs alone leading into their PGA Championship titles. Going back to all 10 of the most recent champions, that average drops to +0.79. With some suggesting Aronimink is a second-shot golf course with green complexes that reward precision, this is the number that will separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Eliminated: Min Woo Lee, Scottie Scheffler

That leaves us with ... five golfers

• Rory McIlroy (9-1)
• Jon Rahm (13-1)
• Cameron Young (16-1)
• Xander Schauffele (19-1)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1)

The biggest surprise here is that the world No. 1 is not included. Scheffler, McIlroy and Schauffele have combined to win seven of the last nine major championships with Scheffler claiming three (including last year's PGA Championship). McIlroy and Schauffele are just two of the multiple-time major winners in this group as Rahm finds a place among the finalists despite a disappointing Masters. Fitzpatrick has the most wins on the PGA Tour this season, while Young has the biggest (non-major category).