Auburn vs. Alabama State odds, March Madness predictions: 2025 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 16th-seeded Alabama State Hornets will look to continue their momentum when they take on the top-seeded Auburn Tigers in a South Regional first-round matchup on Thursday afternoon. Alabama State defeated Saint Francis (Pa.) 70-68 in its First Four matchup on Tuesday, while the Tigers are coming off a 70-65 loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Hornets (20-15), who were 12-6 in the SWAC, are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2011. The Tigers (28-5), who won the SEC regular-season title at 15-3, are making their 14th NCAA Tournament appearance.

Tip-off from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., is set for 2:50 p.m. ET. Auburn is a 32.5-point favorite in the latest Alabama State vs. Auburn odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5, down 2.5 from the opener. Before making any Auburn vs. Alabama State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Alabama State vs. Auburn and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Auburn vs. Alabama State:

• Alabama State vs. Auburn spread: Auburn -32.5
• Alabama State vs. Auburn over/under: 147.5 points
• Alabama State vs. Auburn money line: Alabama State +2200, Auburn -7692    
• ALST: The Hornets have hit the money line in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.60 units)                      
• AUB: The Tigers have hit the game total over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.65 units)  
• Alabama State vs. Auburn picks: See picks at SportsLine
  

Why Auburn can cover

Senior forward Johni Broome helps power the Tigers. He is the SEC's Player of the Year and earned his second consecutive All-SEC First Team selection. In 31 games, including 30 starts, he is averaging 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.3 blocks in 30.1 minutes. In a 93-91 overtime loss to Alabama on March 8, he poured in 34 points, grabbed eight rebounds, blocked five shots, dished out three assists and made three steals.

Senior guard Chad Baker-Mazara is one of five Auburn players averaging double-digit scoring. He is connecting on 46.7% of his field goals, including 39.1% from 3-point range and 89.4% of his free throws. In 33 games, including 29 starts, he is averaging 12.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.2 steals in 25.5 minutes. Baker-Mazara scored 22 points and added three steals and two rebounds in a 94-78 win over Kentucky on March 1. See which team to pick here.

Why Alabama State can cover 

Sophomore guard Amarr Knox had the hot hand with 16 points and two steals in Tuesday's First Four win over Saint Francis (Pa.). He poured in 22 points, grabbed six rebounds and dished out five assists in a 94-52 win over Alabama A&M on March 1. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 14.4 points, 2.4 assists, 1.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals in 28.6 minutes. He has reached double-figure scoring in 24 games.

Senior guard C.J. Hines is one of three Hornets averaging 12 points or more. In 34 games, all starts, he is averaging 14.3 points, three rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.1 steals in 29.4 minutes. In the 60-56 win over Jackson State in the SWAC Tournament championship, he scored 20 points, while adding three rebounds, three steals and two assists. He had 10 points, three rebounds and two assists in Tuesday's win over Saint Francis (Pa.). See which team to pick here.

How to make Auburn vs. Alabama State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 150 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that has all the value. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama State vs. Auburn, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Alabama State vs. Auburn spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.