2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date: Surprising picks from top horse racing expert

The last two Triple Crown winners were both trained by Bob Baffert, and the horse racing staple has two horses in the field at the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Post time for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 2, at 6:57 p.m. ET, and Baffert will look for Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1) to overcome the odds and shock the field in the Run for the Roses. The favorite for the Kentucky Derby 2026 in the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds is Renegade (4-1), winner of the Arkansas Derby. He's followed by Further Ado (6-1), Commandment (6-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1).

Should bettors be looking at one of the favorites when making their wagers on the Kentucky Derby 2026 at top horse racing betting apps, or are they be better off backing longshots who will be operating under a historically successful trainer like Baffert for a higher payout? Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

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In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. One reason is Commandment's conerning closing speeds, as the horse won the Florida Derby despite a slowdown from the Fountain of Youth Stakes thanks to the additional 1/16 mile length. The Kentucky Derby is longer than the Florida event, and that means even more room where Commandment could fall behind.

Additional, Commandment's jockey Luis Saez has not won the Kentucky Derby despite having 12 Derby starts. In fact, he hasn't even finished in the top two. A horse that slows down as distance increases needs an elite jockey to make up for that. While he has won two of the last four Kentucky Oaks races, clearly the Derby is a different beast and for some reason, Saez simply can't get the best out of his horse on race day. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot who drew the No. 9 post. The Gustavo Delgado-trained colt has finished in the top three in all four races he's run since his maiden in January. That includes a victory at the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7. He then was edged by a nose by fellow Kentucky Derby contender Commandment in the Florida Derby on March 28. "He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine.

The Puma also has strong connections that give him a real chance to win at Churchill Downs, Yu notes. The Puma's sire, Essential Quality, had eight victories in 10 starts and finished third in the Derby before winning the Belmont Stakes in 2021. Delgado and jockey Javier Castellano won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage, who was a 15-1 longshot and surged late to win by a length. "His best races put him right in the mix ...," Yu says of The Puma. "I wouldn't be surprised." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions