2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date, post positions: Surprising picks via horse racing expert

Trainer Chad Brown has another shot at breaking his drought Saturday in the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The five-time Eclipse Award winner and two-time Preakness champion is 0-for-9 in the Kentucky Derby, and winning will be tough. Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022, and both had qualified for the Kentucky Derby but skipped it. Now, after top contender Paladin was shut down and with Iron Honor skipping the race, Brown's only chance is Emerging Market, a horse that has raced twice and comes in at 15-1 odds. A horse entering the Run for the Roses after two career starts hasn't won the race since Leonatus in 1883, but Brown is confident in his unbeaten colt for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET on May 2 in Louisville, Ky. The morning-line Kentucky Derby 2026 odds list Further Ado (6-1), Commandment (6-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) as the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorites. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

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In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Commandment (6-1), even though he won the Florida Derby and is one of the top favorites. That victory in Florida saw Commandment post a 122 speed figure which is actually a decrease from his prior race. Despite adding 1/16th of a mile in going from the Fountain of Youth to the Florida Derby, Commandment was slower, which isn't a promising sign with the Kentucky Derby being even longer than Florida.

Commandment will have jockey Luis Saez aboard him, which will be Saez' 13th Derby mount. However, the Panamanian doesn't have a victory, or even a runner-up, across his previous dozen rides. Saez is one of 29 jockeys with at least 12 Derby starts, but just three others have zero first or second-place finishes at The Run for the Roses. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot who drew the No. 9 post. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and finished second, just behind Commandment, at the Florida Derby three weeks later. He has finished in the top three in all four races he has entered. That's quite a resume for a horse that ran his first race in January.

"He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine. She also says "his best races put him right in the mix" and notes that The Puma's connections have led to Derby success before. Jockey Javier Castellano knows how to manage Churchill Downs, as he won the Derby in 2023 aboard Mage, another horse trained by Delgado. He went on to win the Belmont Stakes that year with Arcangelo and has won the Preakness twice. He is making his 18th Run for the Roses. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions