2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date, post positions: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. The post time of 6:57 p.m. ET and Renegade, steered by Irad Ortiz Jr. and trained by Todd Pletcher is the betting favorite at 4-1 in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. Further Ado and Commandment are both priced slightly behind Renegade at 6-1, while Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) round out the top contenders at the Kentucky Derby 2026. Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott, the winning jockey-trainer combination for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with Sovereignty, are teaming up again in 2026 with Chief Wallabee. 

There has not been a Triple Crown winner since Justify accomplished the feat in 2018 but the winner of Saturday's Derby will take the spotlight in hopes of making history in 2026. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

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In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Commandment (6-1), even though he won the Florida Derby and is one of the top favorites. Part of the reason could be jockey Luis Saez, who has had success in the Kentucky Oaks with two wins in the last four races but has not been able to capture a Kentucky Derby title. In fact, Saez has not finished first or second in any of his previous 12 Derby starts.

Commandment's victory at the Florida Derby might have overshadowed a slowdown, as the horse decreased speed with the added 1/16 of a mile from the Fountain of Youth. With the Kentucky Derby being longer than the Florida Derby, it's possible Commandment slows down the stretch in The Run for the Roses. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot who drew the No. 9 post. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and finished second, just behind Commandment, at the Florida Derby three weeks later. He has finished in the top three in all four races he has entered. That's quite a resume for a horse that ran his first race in January.

"He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine. She also says "his best races put him right in the mix" and notes that The Puma's connections have led to Derby success before. Jockey Javier Castellano knows how to manage Churchill Downs, as he won the Derby in 2023 aboard Mage, another horse trained by Delgado. He went on to win the Belmont Stakes that year with Arcangelo and has won the Preakness twice. He is making his 18th Run for the Roses. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions