2025 Breeders' Cup Classic: Picks, betting strategies from racing writer on $7 million race

Like a Broadway musical missing its lead actor, the 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic will have to go on without its headline star. Sovereignty, the strapping 3-year-old colt who won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers Stakes this year, will not compete in North America's richest race after developing a fever this week. He had been installed as the 6-5 morning-line favorite.

Despite Sovereignty's absence, the $7 million Classic at Del Mar still has a star-studded field. The talented Fierceness, who is coming off a win at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic, has inherited the role as the morning-line favorite at 5-2. The late-running Sierra Leone (7-2) is back to defend his Classic title, while Japanese Invader Forever Young (7-2), who has earned more than $15.7 million in his career, will look to finally get his breakthrough victory in the United States.

Kentucky Derby favorite and Preakness Stakes hero Journalism (5-1), two-time Grade 1 winner Mindframe (6-1), Jockey Club Gold Cup champ Antiquarian (10-1) and improving Pennsylvania Derby winner Baeza (10-1) are among the other entrants in this nine-horse field who make this race a head-scratching handicapping exercise.

But with a deep field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, the opportunity exists for an unexpected result. Below I've analyzed the nine-horse field and made my picks and wagers for the Classic.

Horses listed in order of preference.

5 Forever Young (7-2)
This pick came down to trust. In other words, whom do I most trust to run his race? The answer is Japanese invader Forever Young, who has nine wins and three thirds in 12 career starts. One of those victories was a brilliant win in the Saudi Cup in February over Romantic Warrior, which may be the best race any of these horses have run. He finished third in last year's Classic at Del Mar, but he was too close to a wicked pace that day and also encountered traffic trouble along the rail. This year, he should sit a perfect trip right behind Fierceness and Contrary Thinking and pounce as the field turns for home.

1 Fierceness (5-2)
After he disappointed in the Met Mile and Whitney Stakes, I swore to never again be lured in by Fierceness. But then he won the Pacific Classic by daylight despite almost jumping the temporary rail right after the start. He's a super talented horse, but which Fierceness will show up? Here's the case for him: Three of his four fastest races have come in California, including two at Del Mar. But he will have to work out a trip from the rail and deal with Sierra Leone's designate rabbit, Contrary Thinking. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win, but 5-2 is too short for me to take on a horse who can be a head case.

10 Antiquarian (10-1)
While other horses may be more likely to win, the best value in this race is Antiquarian. This Todd Pletcher-trained 4-year-old has steadily improved and is coming off his best career performance, a victory over Sierra Leone in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. There were some factors that may have helped Antiquarian that day, but there's no denying that he ran a huge race. His speed figures say that he's within striking distance of the top contenders in here, and with another jump forward he should be right there. 

7 Sierra Leone (7-2)
The defending champ always comes running at the end, but only sometimes does he cross the finish line first. In last year's Classic, he rallied from last in the field to beat Fierceness, Forever Young, et al., but Sierra Leone has only one win in four starts since then. Both Mindframe and Antiquarian have gotten the best of him. To help Sierra Leone get a fair pace setup on Saturday, trainer Chad Brown has also entered the speedy rabbit, Contrary Thinking. That can only help, but with his running style, Sierra Leone will still have to avoid going too wide on the far turn and avoid traffic. 

9 Journalism (5-1)
If Sovereignty wasn't born in the same year, Journalism may have won the Triple Crown this year. The Preakness winner has six wins and three seconds in 10 career starts, but in his last start he was no match for Fierceness in the Pacific Classic, losing by more than three lengths. However, one trackside observer told me that week that Journalism didn't look great physically after a rigorous Triple Crown campaign. But, for the first time this year, the horse had two months of rest to recharge for the Classic and seems to be back to his old self. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big performance from him. 

2 Baeza (10-1)
In his last six starts, only Sovereignty and Journalism have finished ahead of Baeza, who finally got his breakthrough Grade 1 victory in his last start, the Pennsylvania Derby. Though he beat a rather mediocre field that day, Baeza did earn his career-best Beyer Speed Figure (105). He has steadily gotten faster as the year has gone on, and there are some figure makers who believe he's trending toward another big effort on Saturday. Remember, with the Breeders' Cup in California, the West Coast-based Baeza didn't have to ship for the first time since April.

8 Mindframe (6-1)
He is the trickiest read of all of the Classic horses. Trainer Todd Pletcher has always been high on this 4-year-old son of Constitution, who has five wins in eight starts, including the Gulfsteam Park Mile (in March), the Churchill Downs Sprint (May) and the Stephen Foster Stakes (June). The Jockey Club Gold Cup was supposed to serve as his final prep for the Classic, but he was bumped shortly after the start and lost jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., rendering the race useless. Instead of entering him in another race, Pletcher chose to train Mindframe up to the Classic, which is less-than-ideal preparation. 

3 Nevada Beach (20-1)
This Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old takes a major step up in class on Saturday. He is coming off his best career performance, a victory in the Goodwood Stakes, but that earned a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 101. That was a win-and-you're-in race for the Classic, and I wonder if the connections would be in this race if they didn't have the automatic berth or if the Breeders' Cup wasn't right in his backyard. This lightly raced colt has a bright future, but this is a big ask.

4 Contrary Thinking (50-1)
He's not in this race to win or even finish in the money. He's only in this race to ensure an honest pace up front and set things up for his late-running stablemate, Sierra Leone. Contrary Thinking has won nothing better than an allowance race, and his best Beyer Speed Figure is a 95. That's not even in the neighborhood to be competitive. Auto toss.

6 Sovereignty
Scratched.

Wagering strategy
I don't have a ton of confidence in my opinion on the Classic; there are many better wagering opportunities on Friday and Saturday at the Breeders' Cup. But 7-2 on Forever Young is fair, and I wouldn't be surprised if that price rose to 4-1 or higher. I'll also play a small trifecta trying to get both Forever Young and Antiquarian in the top three.

Wagers
$25 Win 5 ($25)
$1 Trifecta 5,10 with 5,10 with 1,2,7,9 ($8)
$1 Trifecta 5,10 with 1,2,7,9 with 5,10 ($8)
$1 Trifecta 1,2,7,9 with 5,10 with 5,10 ($8)

Total: $49*

* Based on a $100 budget