TEs to target/avoid in 2025 Fantasy Football drafts: Evan Engram has favorable schedules, TJ Hockenson doesn't
Dave Richard's Fantasy Strength of Schedule research highlights tight ends who have good (and bad) matchups
By
Dave Richard
•
5 min read
There's not a lot that goes into being a great tight end. If you can reach six targets per game, you're in pretty good shape to at least be serviceable from week to week. If you can get more, then obviously you're a special starter. We learned that the easy way about Travis Kelce and George Kittle years ago and were reminded about that with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride more recently.
But for any tight end that isn't an obvious must-start guy, there's a little more nuance involved -- and figuring that out begins on Draft Day.
What if you knew a specific tight end had a series of matchups against teams with strong pass-resistant linebackers and safeties? Players who were consistently good at making life hard for the position? Would you stick with them and hope they'd perform well in spite of the matchups?
But what if you knew a specific tight end had the opposite -- a bunch of games against teams that couldn't cover a tight end if they had a blanket and a bear trap? You'd probably want to know about that guy.
Based on my offseason research of every single projected defensive starter and quality depth guy, every team's basic scheme and every team's coverage tendencies, I can take a calculated guess on which teams will be great against tight ends, which teams will be so-so, and which teams will stink.
With that information, a projection can be made to measure the strength of every tight end's schedule.
And not just the whole shebang, but the first four weeks of the season, which are especially crucial for tight ends that are early-season streamers for Fantasy managers.
I love these projections, but even I wouldn't solely use them to make major Fantasy Football decisions. Consider them tiebreakers -- like if you're debating between Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, maybe this info will help you pick McBride.
Complete Fantasy Strength of Schedule breakdowns by position: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
The Niners have a top five favorable schedule across every position. You shouldn't need much convincing to draft Kittle, but you'll be psyched to know the 49ers have the easiest projected schedule among all tight ends. That means Kittle will have fewer games where the defense will deter Kyle Shanahan from calling his number. And it's actually the first four weeks of his season that graded out the toughest, so if you miss Kittle on Draft Day and he starts a little slow, you could make a move to buy low on him knowing his chances of rebounding are high because of who he'll play.
Scheme and schedule set up nicely. We're not drafting Engram because he's a generational talent, but he is a receiver in a tight end's body and he'll play in a mismatch role in Sean Payton's offense in Denver. There's a real chance he finishes second on the team in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. He also will have the seventh-easiest projected schedule and the second-easiest schedule through Week 4 (the Titans are first up, then the Colts). He's a value pick this year.
A prayer for Pitts' numbers? The Falcons have the fourth-easiest projected schedule for tight ends and the third-easiest in the first four weeks of the season (Bucs, Vikings, Panthers and Commanders, then a bye in Week 5). Keep in mind, Pitts is not utilized like a typical tight end and has much more receiving ability than blocking ability, which alters the kind of coverage he'll see compared to someone like Kittle or Trey McBride. But maybe he's worth trusting one more time, especially since his draft cost will be cheap. Of course, Pitts had a favorable schedule last year too, and it didn't help.
Trouble ahead for T.J.? All of the NFC North's tight ends will have tough schedules because all of the NFC North's defenses have solutions for covering tight ends (Detroit figures to be the best). But AFC North defenses also will make things challenging for Hockenson as will other opponents. It adds up to the Vikings having the second-hardest projected schedule for tight ends. If Hockenson has a big year, he'll have earned it.
Contrasting rookie schedules. If you're into the matchups, you'll give an edge to Warren over Loveland. The Colts rookie tight end has the 11th-easiest projected schedule and the seventh-easiest to start the season. Loveland's Bears have the sixth-toughest and it never really gets favorable for Loveland or for Cole Kmet. Neither tight end will be a priority pick this year, but at least Warren has easier matchups and won't split targets with another tight end like Loveland will.
Others with favorable projected schedules: McBride (sixth-easiest), Brenton Strange (second-easiest), Juwan Johnson (third-easiest), Elijah Arroyo and Noah Fant (fifth-easiest), Chig Okonkwo (eighth-easiest).
Others with tough projected schedules: Travis Kelce (eighth-toughest), Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely (seventh-toughest), David Njoku (third-toughest), Tucker Kraft (fifth-toughest), Mike Gesicki (the toughest).
TEs with favorable early-season schedules (potential sell-high candidates in October): Warren, Pitts, Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry (easiest projected schedule through Week 4), Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz.
TEs with tough early-season schedules (potential buy-low candidates in October): Jonnu Smith is the only realistic one.
Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for the season thru Week 17
| SF | 1 | PHI | 17 |
| JAC | 2 | LAR | 18 |
| NO | 3 | BUF | 19 |
| ATL | 4 | MIA | 20 |
| SEA | 5 | DAL | 21 |
| ARI | 6 | PIT | 22 |
| DEN | 7 | DET | 23 |
| TEN | 8 | WAS | 24 |
| LAC | 9 | KC | 25 |
| HOU | 10 | BAL | 26 |
| IND | 11 | CHI | 27 |
| NE | 12 | GB | 28 |
| CAR | 13 | NYG | 29 |
| LV | 14 | CLE | 30 |
| TB | 15 | MIN | 31 |
| NYJ | 16 | CIN | 32 |
Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for first four weeks
| NE | 1 | GB | 17 |
| DEN | 2 | NYJ | 18 |
| ATL | 3 | NO | 19 |
| LAR | 4 | LV | 20 |
| JAC | 5 | BUF | 21 |
| HOU | 6 | MIN | 22 |
| IND | 7 | SEA | 23 |
| WAS | 8 | CHI | 24 |
| TEN | 9 | DET | 25 |
| PHI | 10 | DAL | 26 |
| SF | 11 | CIN | 27 |
| ARI | 12 | TB | 28 |
| NYG | 13 | BAL | 29 |
| LAC | 14 | PIT | 30 |
| MIA | 15 | CLE | 31 |
| CAR | 16 | KC | 32 |
Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for Weeks 15-17
| SEA | 1 | CHI | 17 |
| SF | 2 | MIA | 18 |
| TB | 3 | TEN | 19 |
| NO | 4 | NYJ | 20 |
| PHI | 5 | WAS | 21 |
| ATL | 6 | KC | 22 |
| HOU | 7 | DAL | 23 |
| NYG | 8 | IND | 24 |
| LAC | 9 | LV | 25 |
| CIN | 10 | MIN | 26 |
| ARI | 11 | BUF | 27 |
| JAC | 12 | CLE | 28 |
| CAR | 13 | LAR | 29 |
| PIT | 14 | DET | 30 |
| DEN | 15 | NE | 31 |
| BAL | 16 | GB | 32 |
Still here? Cool! You'll also benefit from the in-season version of the Fantasy Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It's a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.
