Fantasy Football WR draft strategy: Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson No. 1?

Our QB and RB projections are posted, and for the most part, there aren't many fantasy-relevant players whose ADP or FFT Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) deviates significantly from our Week 1-17 projection-based rank enough that would result in our advising you to draft someone whose ADP/ECR doesn't even rank. This is NOT the case with wide receivers, and these are notable unranked WRs. Get the latest bet365 bonus for new users here and bet receiver production:

WR48 Rashod Bateman may not get more than 50 receptions and 700 yards, but he is a TD machine who is an ascending player that the Ravens extended this off-season despite having him on contract for 2 more years. WR52 Quentin Johnston's dropped passes in critical situations absolutely can make you think, "How was he drafted ahead of Zay Flowers?" but his 711 yards and 8 TDs on just 55 receptions (Zay had 1059 and 4 on 77 receptions) make him at least worth ranking.

Would You Rather Have Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr as Your WR1?

Nabers is projected for more PPR points, but in a 0.5-PPR or non-PPR, we'll take Brian Thomas Jr. And in PPR, we'd rather get Brian Thomas Jr in the second round than use our first-round pick on Malik Nabers because we think Thomas Jr. has the higher Year 2 upside. BTJ is much more productive per reception. Nabers is projected for 1.8 FPs from yards and TDs per reception, and the Giants could be much more run heavy, with Cam Skattebo joining the duo of Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary. Brian Thomas Jr is projected for 2.4 FPs from yards and TDs per reception. 

Travis Hunter may be an 18 to 24% target share WR, but there are plenty of targets to go around after JAX cleaned house with no Christian Kirk, Evan Engram or Gabe Davis around. BTJ's target share % could significantly increase with more subtraction than addition (Hunter) at receiver. BTJ already was a king of explosive plays, and with Hunter, he might face even less double coverage. Hunter could also help move the chains more consistently, resulting in more RZ opportunities. 

Trevor Lawrence is projected for +300 more passing yards and +4 more TDs than Russell Wilson, so even if Nabers gets a higher percentage, Thomas could still match or exceed Nabers' statistical totals. Neither player is heavily used as a runner, but BTJ did have 48 yards on 6 carries with first down runs of 18, 13 and 11 vs. Nabers, who had more carries (5) than rushing yards (2). There could be some more creative looks for BTJ running the ball in Year 2.

Brian Thomas Jr. Best Futures Bet: Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns -110 (DraftKings)
He could hit this over before November. Even if Travis Hunter gets 25% of team receptions, like BTJ did as a rookie, you still could have BTJ at 30%+ given the lack of depth at receiver and TE. Hunter's presence will make BTJ even more productive per catch than he was as a rookie, which may be impossible to imagine given he had 25% of team receptions, but 35% of the team's receiving yards and 53% of receiving touchdowns. There are some players who get a lot of receiving TDs because they are 100+ reception players (Amon-Ra St. Brown), but then there are others who produce because of YAC and not getting doubled on the opponent's side of the field (Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Quentin Johnston). BTJ could be BOTH this season with around 100 receptions but also with Hunter drawing defensive attention. You can bet on Thomas Jr. to go Over 6.5 receiving touchdowns at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:

Malik Nabers Best Futures Bet: Over 1150.5 Receiving Yards -110 (bet365)
He had over this in just 15 games as a rookie with some awful QBs. While the trio of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart may still be bottom 8 in the league, that should be a big upgrade over Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. Nabers only averaged 11.0 yards per reception, but the more important stat is his percentage of team yards, as 39.4% was substantially higher than his percentage of team receptions (34%). The Giants were 31st in passing yards per attempt at 6.0, while Pittsburgh with Russ/Justin Fields was at a respectable 7.2 YPA. Even if Nabers misses four games and has only 90 receptions, he could still hit this Over with a 12.8 yards per reception average, thanks to a substantially higher yards per attempt from the QBs.

Would You Rather Have LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase or LSU WR Justin Jefferson as WR1?

If they swapped teams, we'd probably take Jefferson over Chase. The total receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdown pies in Minnesota are smaller than the ones in Cincinnati. Burrow completed nearly 100 more passes for 600 more yards and 8 more TDs. Not only is the pie smaller, but there are also more mouths to feed in Minnesota. Chase is the clear leader in rec%, recyd% and rectd% on the team and has a roughly +7% edge over Tee Higgins in all 3 stats. No other player is above 15% in any of the 3 categories. Jefferson doesn't even have the highest TD rate on the team, as that goes to Jordan Addison. Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson are both nearly 20% in team receptions and yards. Even RB Aaron Jones is a fairly heavily utilized receiver. With these factors in play, we have Chase at +16 in receptions, +30 in receiving yards, +6 in receiving TDs and +3.3 in FPs per game.

Ja'Marr Chase Best Futures Bet: Over 10.5 Receiving Touchdowns -110 (DraftKings)
FanDuel is charging -130, so we'd act on this DraftKings line now. We are projecting Chase for 14 TDs in 17 games, so we have a shot at the Over even if he misses a month of games. Joe Burrow's passing TD line is 33.5, and those lines are typically based on a 15% chance of missing any games, so the oddsmakers probably would have Cincinnati at 38.5 passing TDs as a team. If Chase is healthy, the Under would mean him accounting for under 25% of the team's receiving TDs. He accounts for 38% of the team's receiving TDs for his career and he's not about to fall off a cliff. He is only 2-2 Over this line in his career, which is why after his 17-TD season, we're not seeing a line of 12.5. But in one season he had only 9 because he missed 5 games. In 2023, he only had 7 because of an oddly slow start (0 TDs in first 4 games) and the season-ending injury to Joe Burrow (0 TDs in his last 4 games). He had 7 TDs in an 8-game stretch when he was in his normal groove with Burrow.

Justin Jefferson Best Futures Bet: Under 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns -110 (DraftKings)
His line is 8.5 (+106 Under) at FanDuel, so we recommend taking this 9.5 line at a fair -110 before it goes away. Our projection is for 8 receiving TDs. While we think J.J. McCarthy will be a very good QB, he is still going to be a rookie getting used to being in a pass-first offense. It's not unreasonable to see MIN drop from 35 passing TDs to 30 and with Jefferson's 27% to 28% of the team's TD rate, we have the Under. The Vikings also face a number of highly rated pass defenses. In addition to their division opponents, they also have the Steelers, Eagles, Seahawks, Chargers, Browns and Ravens on their non-conference schedule. You can bet on Jefferson to go Under 9.5 receiving touchdowns at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:

Would You Rather Have 32-Year-Old Mike Evans or 28-Year-Old A.J. Brown?

Evans played 14 games and Brown played 13 last season. Evans averaged 17.2 FP in PPR while Brown averaged 16.7. Evans' success is tied to his great hands, size and chemistry with Baker Mayfield... these do not diminish with age. Brown is (was?) Jalen Hurts' "best friend," but it doesn't always seem to look that way on the field. The Eagles dominated the league with A.J. Brown's role diminished in '24 (nearly 2 fewer targets per game), and if anything, we see even more emphasis on Saquon Barkley, given he has untapped potential as a receiver out of the backfield. There are many more mouths to feed in Tampa Bay than in Philadelphia, but the number of pass attempts is so much higher in TB, it results in a plenty big slice of the pie for Evans. Tampa Bay averaged over 7 more pass attempts per game than Philadelphia in '24.

Mike Evans Best Futures Bet: Over 7.5 Receiving Touchdowns -110 (DraftKings)
We do project Evans for a record-breaking 12th straight 1000-yard season but the value over 925.5 receiving yards is not as great as the value we have with 11 projected receiving touchdowns. Evans' percentage of TD receptions is a tremendous 33%, which is way higher than his 22% of team receptions. The healthy return of Chris Godwin and drafting Emeka Egbuka could cut down into Evans' percentage of receptions, yards and touchdowns. But even a 20% 'haircut' in his percentages for team receiving stats would still put him at over 25% of team receiving touchdowns. Baker Mayfield's pass TD line averages out at 30, so Evans can still go Over, even with a significant drop in production. You can bet on Evans to go Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:

A.J. Brown Best Futures Bet: Under 1150.5 Receiving Yards -130 (bet365)
We technically project the over with 1205, but that assumes 17 games played. If he misses even one game, we will likely have the Under. The Eagles are projected to be just as great, if not greater, than last year's dominant team. If that's the case, they could be up big in many second halves, resulting in limited downfield passing. They may also have a one seed locked up, resulting in resting starters Week 18. If Saquon Barkley has another year like he did last season, maybe the Eagles let him try to get the all-time single season record this season because they didn't last season. I just don't see the priority in Philly being re-establishing A.J. Brown as a top-5 WR.