Fantasy football rankings 2025: Busts by advanced NFL model that predicted Raheem Mostert's down year

It's always a tough proposition trying to figure out which stud player is either going to hit the wall and see his productivity tank or suffer a severe injury and be lost for a big portion of the season. Last season, it was 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. In many Fantasy football drafts, he was either the top pick or was at least top-five. Little did anyone know his season was pretty much done before it even started.

After a 2023 season that saw him rush for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns as well as catch 67 passes for 564 yards and seven touchdowns, his productivity cratered. He played in just four games in 2024, rushing for just 202 yards and catching 15 passes for 146 yards. He did not score any touchdowns. Which big name players will be among the top 2025 Fantasy football busts? Before finalizing your 2025 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, the model accurately predicted that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert would fall well short of his ADP (RB23). The result: A season after rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 21 total touchdowns despite sharing time with De'Von Achane, Mostert fell out of favor in Miami and finished as RB60 after managing only 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.

The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021 and correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. 

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2025, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them. 

Top 2025 Fantasy football busts

One of the 2025 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Bills running back James Cook. A second-round pick out of Georgia in the 2022 NFL Draft, Cook showed flashes of excellence as a rookie in averaging 5.7 yards per carry and then broke out with 1,567 scrimmage yards in 2023. Unfortunately, he only scored nine touchdowns on 391 touches over those first two seasons. Last season, he had his most productive Fantasy year to date because he managed to score 18 total touchdowns.

However, he actually had a smaller snap share (48%) than he did in 2023 (55%) and his total touches dropped from 281 to 239 (although he did miss a game). With quarterback Josh Allen still well-established as the team's primary ball carrier in short-yardage situations, serious touchdown regression for Cook is a viable concern and a big reason why the model ranks him behind James Conner and Aaron Jones, who are available at least two rounds later on average.

Another bust that SportsLine's Fantasy football rankings 2025 have identified: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. After being drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, big things were expected of the Ohio State superstar. But after three seasons in the league, Wilson has yet to attain stardom. Being drafted by the New York Jets certainly didn't help. The Jets quarterback position has been a revolving door, and things don't get any better this year.

After letting Aaron Rodgers walk, New York has hooked its offensive wagon to former Chicago and Pittsburgh quarterback Justin Fields. Fields is not known for his passing ability, but more for his rushing prowess. That could mean that Wilson's talents will again be wasted. In the one full season with Rodgers, Wilson showed he could be a weapon, catching 101 passes for 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns. The model, however, forecasts him as a 2025 Fantasy football bust and slots him outside the top 15 players at his position. See which other Fantasy football busts 2025 to pick here.

How to find proven 2025 Fantasy football rankings

SportsLine is also fading one of the first five running backs off the board in early 2025 Fantasy football drafts. The model ranks this player falling outside the top 10 entirely and failing to live up to his first-round price tag. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2025 Fantasy Football busts should you be steering clear of? And which first-round RB shockingly falls out of the top 10 of the positional rankings? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that helped managers avoid a disastrous Raheem Mostert season in 2024.

2025 Fantasy football ADP

(PPR, via CBS)

1. Saquon Barkley (2.24)
2. Bijan Robinson (2.54)
3. Ja'Marr Chase (3.12)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (3.99)
5. Derrick Henry (5.69)
6. Josh Jacobs (9.85)
7. Justin Jefferson (10.10)
8. Christian McCaffrey (10.71)
9. Ashton Jeanty (11.14)
10. Lamar Jackson (11.35)