We blew it last week. My editor and I decided to spotlight Billy Butler, Hunter Pence and Brandon Wood instead of Tim Lincecum here last Thursday, which would have made us look clairvoyant.
You know the story. The phenom was called up suddenly last Friday, debuted Sunday and will have a chance to stick around and dominate for numerous Fantasy teams. Not surprisingly, he is currently the most-added player in CBS SportsLine's Fantasy leagues (up to 73 percent from 36 last week) -- just days after being a consistent presence in the most-scouted player list.
We won't go on a limb and predict a Sunday arrival this week for one Homer Bailey -- reason to be explained below -- but we have to throw that name out there now that Reds bust Eric Milton (elbow) has been banished to the DL.
Bailey was the most-viewed player on CBS SportsLine on Thursday, the morning after speculation began to swirl about the 6-foot-4, 205-pound right-hander. No other minor leaguer was listed in the top 100 most-viewed, making it clear that now is Bailey's time to be added in Fantasy leagues. His ownership shot from 17 percent to 28 percent on the news.
For good reason.
Bailey is a talent on the level of Phil Hughes and Lincecum, and we know how fast phenoms like this get snapped up. Take a flier on Bailey immediately in any league you have room on your reserves, especially in all long-term keeper and deeper NL-only leagues. Reading this column instead of acting might make you miss the boat.
This is a pitcher we have commonly called the next Josh Beckett, if only because he's a Texan with wicked stuff and the potential to arrive as a baby-faced kid.
"He just turned 21," Reds GM Wayne Krivsky said. "He's still learning."
Bailey, the Reds' top draft pick in June 2004, sure looks ready as anyone. He is 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts for Triple-A Louisville. Although Krivsky didn't rule out a promotion, he really wants his prized young arm to not feel rushed.
Later Thursday, on MLB.com, the Reds listed lefty Bobby Livingston (0-3, 3.22 ERA with 33 Ks and just four walks in 44 2/3 innings) or Phillip Dumatrait (5-1, 1.99 with 25 Ks and 18 walks in 40 2/3 innings) as potential replacements. Dumatrait pitched well Thursday night for Louisville, earning his fifth win.
"It'll be somebody out of Triple-A," manager Jerry Narron told MLB.com about the Milton replacement. "Livingston or Dumatrait -- those two guys have pitched the best. I'm not saying Homer is definitely out of it. We're going to keep him down there for a few more starts at least. Hopefully, he continues to progress.
"I wouldn't get my hopes up on Homer."
Sunday's opening is technically Livingston's day to pitch, but batters are hitting .291 against him. Bailey is far more unhittable at .177 even if his 21-to-15 strikeout-to-walk rate is a disappointing by his standards.
Now that Dumatrait started Thursday, if Bailey doesn't make his Triple-A start Saturday -- let the free-agent crush begin!
Might just want to get the jump on it now.
On the verge
Here are some of our favorite prospects who are in the minor leagues and are worth tracking closely.
| Minor league hotlist | ||
| Position, player, team | Minor league stats | |
| 1 | SP Homer Bailey, CIN | Triple-A: (3-1)-1.83-21-1.019 |
| Eric Milton's trip to the DL could mean a trip to the big leagues. | ||
| 2 | 3B Ryan Braun, MIL | Triple-A: .358-8-17-22-3 |
| Once the Brewers cool off, they will summon their future star. | ||
| 3 | SP Yovani Gallardo, MIL | Triple-A: (4-1)-2.19-51-0.865 |
| Brewers rotation doesn't have opening; watch out when they do. | ||
| 4 | SP Kevin Slowey, MIN | Triple-A: (3-1)-1.38-31-0.704 |
| Finally lost, but his command is just ridiculous (just 2 walks). | ||
| 5 | OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS | Double-A: .452-0-13-16-8 |
| 23-year-old is raw, but he's hotter than a firecracker right now. | ||
| Honorable mentions: SP Adam Miller, CLE; SP Eric Hurley, TEX; SP Scott Baker, MIN; SP Matt Garza, MIN; SP Tyler Clippard, NYY; SP Andrew Miller, DET; 3B Brandon Wood, LAA; C Jeff Mathis, LAA; SP Jason Hammel, TB; SP Jeff Niemann, TB; SP Andy Sonnanstine, TB; SP Josh Banks, TOR; OF Justin Upton, TB; SP Troy Patton, HOU; 3B Ian Stewart, COL; OF Matt Kemp, LAD; 1B Steven Pearce, PIT; OF Rick Ankiel, STL; 1B/OF James Loney, LAD; C Lou Palmisano, MIL; SS Reid Brignac, TB; SP Philip Humber, NYM; 3B Evan Longoria, TB; SP Scott Elbert, LAD; SP Chuck Lofgren, CLE; 3B Chase Headley, SD; SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD; 3B/OF Josh Fields, CHW; SP Nick Adenhart, LAA; OF Wladimir Balentien, SEA; OF Terry Evans, LAA; OF Adam Jones, SEA; SS Sean Rodriguez, LAA. | ||
Rookie watch
Here are the top rookies in Fantasy to date (stats through May 9):
| Top 5 AL Fantasy Rookies | ||
| Position, player, team | Rotisserie stats to date | |
| 1 | SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS | 4-2, 4.80 ERA, 47 K, 1.289 WHIP, 0 SV |
| Struggling with walks, but he wins and Ks batters. Still leads here. | ||
| 2 | RP Joakim Soria, KC | (1-1)-2.87-17-1.213-6 |
| Time's nearly up: Octavio Dotel is 1-2 weeks away from return. | ||
| 3 | RF Delmon Young, TB | .240 AVG, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 2 SB |
| Mired in his first official big league slump, but he will be fine. | ||
| 4 | OF Reggie Willits, LAA | .373-0-3-8-5 |
| Speedy reserve OF has made recent impact in AL Roto leagues. | ||
| 5 | RP Hideki Okajima, BOS | (0-0)-0.56-19-0.688-1 |
| April AL Rookie Pitcher of the Month is better than advertised. | ||
| Honorable mentions: SP Matt DeSalvo, NYY; OF Travis Buck, OAK; OF Adam Lind, TOR; 2B Dustin Pedroia, BOS; 3B Akinori Iwamura, TB; SP Phil Hughes, NYY; RP Dustin Moseley, LAA; SP Darrell Rasner, NYY; SP Kei Igawa, NYY; SP John Danks, CHW; OF Elijah Dukes, TB; 3B Alex Gordon, KC; OF Ryan Sweeney, KC; OF Billy Butler, KC. | ||
| Top 5 NL Fantasy Rookies | ||
| Position, player, team | Rotisserie stats | |
| 1 | OF Josh Hamilton, CIN | .277 AVG, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 19 R, 2 SB |
| Edwin Encarnacion's demotion hands Hamilton a full-time job. | ||
| 2 | RP Henry Owens, FLA | 2-0, 1.96 ERA, 21 K, 1.255 WHIP, 4 SV |
| Owens needs to keep this up to hold off Jorge Julio as closer. | ||
| 3 | SP Micah Owings, ARI | (2-1)-3.18-21-1.200-0 |
| He needs to be owned in more than 43 percent of leagues. | ||
| 4 | Carlos Ruiz, PHI | .272-1-12-12-1 |
| Numbers aren't bad for C, but shares time with Rod Barajas. | ||
| 5 | CF Chris Young, ARI | .233-4-15-15-4 |
| Slow start, but among rookie leaders in a few categories. | ||
| Honorable mentions: SP Chris Sampson, HOU; SP Jason Hirsh, COL; 3B Andy LaRoche, LAD; OF Hunter Pence, HOU; SP Anthony Lerew, ATL; SP Tim Lincecum, SF; SP Matt Albers, HOU; SP Justin Germano, SD; SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM; OF Alejandro De Aza, FLA; SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL; RP Joe Smith, NYM; RP Matt Lindstrom, FLA; C Miguel Montero, ARI. | ||
Baby talk
Jeff Taccarino, Ocean City, N.J.: I'm holding on to Ryan Braun in my 12-team keeper league with one minor league slot. When do you realistically think he could be brought up, given the current situation at third in Milwaukee?
Emack: We'll go with June 1 right now, but we won't be surprised if it's sooner.
Jason: I am working on a trade to get some keepers and the other team is offering either Adam Miller or Andrew Miller. Who will have the biggest impact this year and next year?
Emack: Adam is closer and more polished right now. Long term we might choose Andrew, but Adam's Fantasy impact will be bigger sooner.
You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects Report in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.
