Full Disclosure: I've already seen enough

One week in the books and the results ... vary.

Fortunately, I did the best in the Head-to-Head leagues, which have the only measure of permanence so far. I have wins in each of them, and no matter how poorly I do the rest of the season, nobody can take them away from me.

By contrast, nobody has accomplished anything in the Rotisserie leagues yet, and nobody will until the end of the season. Still, on my three marathon runs, I already have a little catching up to do.

Do I put much stock in these early numbers? Not really. I do see a few unfavorable trends, but with so few at-bats and innings pitched contributing to each team's totals, players who have begun the year cold -- guys like Pat Burrell and Travis Ishikawa stand out on my teams -- or unrealistically hot -- Ryan Theriot, anybody? -- tend to skew the numbers.

So during these first few weeks of the season, I tend to practice patience, at least as far as trades go. Not so much on the waiver wire.

You might notice I get particularly aggressive with starting pitchers. Hey, every start for them represents one-thirtieth of the season. That has some significance. So if someone with some degree of upside pitches well right away -- a La Kyle Davies or Edwin Jackson -- I'll go ahead and claim him, assuming I don't have to give up too much to do so. Then, if he struggles in his next start and someone else pitches well, I'll go ahead and make the swap even if I prefer the player I'm dropping to the player I'm adding. I don't give up on him; I just drop him. I can pretty well trust my competitors not to add a relative no-name coming off a crummy start, so why waste a roster spot on him if I don't have to?

In all this swapping, I hope eventually to land a starting pitcher who sticks, meaning a breakout, meaning this year's version of Edinson Volquez, Cliff Lee or Gavin Floyd. You'll see more undrafted breakouts among pitchers than hitters every year, and you want to make sure you end up with one or two of them.

12-team mixed Rotisserie (Standing: 7th; 5x5 Score: 63.0)

Well, the Jason Motte experiment didn't last long. Maybe it continues off and on for the Cardinals, but not for my Fantasy team. At this stage of the season, I don't have a place in my starting lineup for a reliever who doesn't get consistent save opportunities, especially when he has a penchant for blowing three-run leads.

So I cut him. I didn't even see anyone I wanted instead. I just knew I couldn't trust Motte for anything. He had to go. I could have picked up Jordan Zimmermann, who I had earlier in the season and would like to have again if he pitches like I think he will. But the Nationals plan to give him his first start April 19, as in Sunday, as in the final day of the Fantasy week. One rainout could push him back a day and leave me with nothing, so I'd rather wait and add Zimmermann after the lineups lock. Besides, would I really want a pitcher active for his first major-league start? That's just asking for trouble.

I could have also gone with Brad Penny, who I cut for Edwin Jackson a few days earlier and who gave me a win this week. But his start, while serviceable, didn't make me feel like I had unearthed a Fantasy mainstay. I passed for now and instead opted for Kyle Davies, who I sort of like, because I understand his upside, but sort of loathe, because I used to watch him pitch -- and quite poorly -- every fifth day for the Braves. Unlike Zimmermann, he makes his start early in the week. If he throws another gem, I don't have to worry about anyone else beating me to him off the waiver wire. If he bombs, I can cut him for Zimmermann then and there, before Zimmermann even has a chance to impress anybody else.

As for Jackson, I have to admit I added him after he allowed only three baserunners in 7 1/3 innings in his first start. He has upside even if he has developed at a snail's pace. I don't have a problem with his second start against Texas -- he posted a respectable 1.33 WHIP against one of the best-hitting teams in the majors -- but I can't afford to get that from him every start. I also have my doubts about Jair Jurrjens, who I guess got a win Sunday, but I'd hardly call 10 baserunners in 5 1/3 innings a victory. He'll need to do better than that if he wants to stay on my team.

I didn't change any of my hitters. I think you can only deduce so much from one week of stats, and I don't have a bench to take a wait-and-see approach with guys like Adam Lind. If I add somebody, I have to start him. I do, at least for now, regret adding Jeff Francoeur over Denard Span, fearing a shortage of power. And I can't undo the move. Somebody else claimed Span two days into the season.

The power shortage remains, though, and if I don't start seeing some pop from Todd Helton or Aubrey Huff, I might have to look at someone like Jack Cust off the waiver wire. Too early to resort to him, though.

10-team mixed Head-to-Head (Standing: 2nd; Record: 1-0)

Well, I have to say that first game went pretty much by the book. Three of my four keepers -- Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Quentin -- led my hitters in scoring, with top draft pick Kevin Youkilis right up there with them. And my underrated cast of starting pitchers -- none drafted earlier than what would equate to Round 6 -- mostly lived up to its potential, with Josh Johnson's complete game securing a big, big win.

Of course, that's only one down and 20-something to go. I had a similar big win in this league to open last season and ended up with my worst finish since 2000, when I actually was 16 instead of just looking it.

So I have to keep my foot on the gas, and after watching other people beat me to Nate McLouth and Carlos Quentin last year (I later traded for Quentin), I want to make sure I land some of this year's breakout hitters, which is more complicated than it sounds.

Hitting works a little differently in this league. Hitters lose a full point for strikeouts instead of just half a point. That slight tweak doesn't have much of an effect on the studs -- studs are studs, after all -- but some of the middling options in other leagues can become pretty much worthless in this one. Needless to say, I have to get picky about the kind of hitters I target, which explains why I had someone like Andy LaRoche on my roster to open the season.

But no more. I punted LaRoche after his 0-for-12 start and picked up Kendry Morales, who hasn't really done much yet but had a terrific spring and never really struck out much in the minors. I also picked up Austin Kearns -- he of the three-to-four strikeout-to-walk ratio -- for a brief period but ended up cutting him to make room for B.J. Upton, who will come off the disabled list Monday.

Of course, I had planned to cut Kearns anyway for Adam Lind, who I had avoided at first because of the strikeout-to-walk issue. But when I finally decided I could only take that bias so far, someone else grabbed Lind, outbidding me $5 to $2.

Obviously, I want to go ahead and get Upton active. Well, I say "obviously," but I really debated the decision. I generally like to give players returning from injury a week to prove their health because if they have a last-minute setback, I'm stuck with them. But since I have only perpetual setback Milton Bradley as an alternative, I'll take my chances with Upton. (And as I type this, Bradley pulls his groin and has to leave Sunday night's game. How fitting.)

I've also decided to start the red-hot Denard Span. I'd like to keep Ryan Spilborghs in my lineup after his respectable performance in Week 1, but I can't justify it with the Rockies playing five games and the Twins and Rays each playing seven.

I see no reason to change my starting pitching for now. I still consider my starting five by far my best five, and Jon Lester, Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey all project to make two starts this week. On my bench, I replaced Ian Snell with Kyle Davies, though Snell's solid start Sunday has him back on my radar. I also cut Chris Ray. His slow start puts him well behind George Sherrill in the closer battle.

12-team AL-only Rotisserie (Standing: 10th; 5x5 Score: 48.5)

One week into the season, and I already feel the loss of Alex Rodriguez.

I guess I should have expected it all along. Losing a player of that caliber wouldn't shift the balance of power in a mixed league, where I could still find an adequate replacement on the waiver wire. In an AL-only league, where I have nowhere else to turn, it's detrimental. Now that I find myself ranked at the bottom of home runs, RBI and runs scored, I can't help but feel a bit uneasy.

The good news is I had A-Rod in this same league last year. He missed almost all of April then, and my team performed just as miserably then as it has now. He eventually returned, played like himself, and I ended up finishing in second place. So if he returns in May this year and all goes according to plan, same thing, right?

Still, I can't help but regret my decision to spend more than usual on pitching. An extra hitter or two would help soften the loss of A-Rod, and if I ended up not having enough pitching, I could find enough middle relievers on the waiver wire to fill in the gaps or perhaps even win ERA and WHIP.

In leagues this deep, transactions don't happen regularly, and I only made one this past week, replacing Russ Springer with teammate Michael Wuertz, who seems to have a more critical role out of the bullpen. I also decided to activate Wuertz and fellow reliever Joe Smith. No reason to let Jeff Niemann and Tim Wakefield undo all the good work of the expensive pitchers.

Of course, by reserving Wakefield, I show a tremendous amount of confidence in Koji Uehara, who has two starts this week. Normally, I'd prefer a two-start pitcher, but for a shaky option like Uehara in a Rotisserie league, two starts could end up meaning twice the damage. Clearly, I expect more good than bad for Uehara even though I don't have much basis for it.

12-team NL-only Rotisserie (Standing: 8th; 5x5 Score: 56.0)

Not many transactions here, but I did take the same approach to setting my lineup that I used in my AL-only league, sitting my shakiest starting pitcher (Jorge De La Rosa) for a middle reliever (Peter Moylan). I also could have activated Geoff Geary, but J.A. Happ has pitched well enough as a middle reliever that I'll go ahead and stick with him for now.

If De La Rosa proves he can pitch like he did in the second half last year, when he went 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA, I'll consider activating him again, but he has too much downside for me to risk taking a hit during these first few experimental starts. Again, I don't want to undo all the good work of my expensive starting pitchers.

I did find one worthwhile hitter on the waiver wire. Darnell McDonald has the potential to make a few starts for the Reds, and he has the potential to steal a few bases, something this team needs. I didn't shell out big FAAB dollars to get him him or anything, and I only gave up Geary, thinking I can find similar middle relievers on the waiver wire easily enough. I probably also would have given up Jonny Gomes for McDonald.

Apart from steals, nothing about my team's offense really concerns me yet. I might have some problems, though, if Hanley Ramirez cuts back on his baserunning now that hits third in the lineup.

20-team mixed Head-to-Head (Standing: 3rd NL-only side; Record: 1-0)
(10 teams NL-only, 10 teams AL-only)

I mocked him. I belittled him. I made offhanded jokes and begrudgingly selected him with my 18th-round pick, wanting to pass on him like everybody else even though he ranked 10th among NL outfielders in Fantasy points last season.

And Randy Winn responded by leading my team to victory.

In a week when my starting pitchers, with the exception maybe of Chris R. Young, did hardly anything, Winn ranked first among my collection of star-studded hitters with 31 points.

And that's why you never say never to anybody in Fantasy. At some point, if they fall far enough, even the most unspectacular players have too much value to ignore.

I don't expect Winn to carry my team or anything, but last year he ranked where he did without having exceptional numbers in any category. And now that he bats leadoff for the Giants, he might end up stealing even more bases. I think I've found my designated hitter.

Ironically, I didn't have him starting at designated hitter originally. The announcement that Elijah Dukes would come off the bench for the Nationals pretty much forced that decision.

Speaking of Dukes, call me crazy, but I've considered adding him again in this league. He made three starts this past week, and if Lastings Milledge continues to struggle, the trend might continue. In most leagues this deep, I probably would have added Dukes by now, but I just have so few bench slots available that I can't bring myself to do it. Maybe if Austin Kearns doesn't hit any better this week, I'll make the move.

I no longer feel like I have a dire need to acquire a third baseman. Pedro Feliz proved healthy enough coming off back surgery to start every game, and he ended up with a decent number of points -- 18, more than Jose Reyes -- even though he didn't hit a home run. I still don't have much confidence in him, but I can get by with him for now.

A couple of my bench pitchers -- Anibal Sanchez and Franklin Morales, specifically -- impressed me, but since neither figures to make two starts this week, I don't see any reason to make any changes to my starting five. Todd Wellemeyer struggled, yes, but he has two starts upcoming. Besides, half the pitchers in baseball struggled in their first starts of the season. I don't want to judge anybody too soon.

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