If you own Charlie Blackmon in Fantasy Baseball, you've probably been disappointed with his performance since about mid-April. The regression was inevitable. He performed like the best player in baseball for the first six weeks and is clearly not the best player in baseball.
But he's also not as bad as he's shown the last eight weeks. Assuming he is -- and acting on that assumption -- would be even more short-sighted than whatever move you made to get him in the first place.
Blackmon has maintained a high contact rate throughout his struggles, striking out about once every six at-bats over his last 52 games, making his current .294 batting average pretty easy to buy. It was up in the .380 range before and, again, too good to be true, but now that it's regressed to this point, you could argue he's due for a resurgence of sorts. And what do you know? With his solo shot Wednesday, he's now homered in back-to-back games.
He also had this to offer after homering in Tuesday's game: "I just kind of felt like I got into maybe some bad habits. That kept me from being simple and direct to the ball. I've simplified things a little bit lately."
Individual statistics tend to normalize over the time. A player may not always take the most direct route to them, but in the end, they usually turn out like you'd expect them to. If we assume Blackmon is back to playing within himself, as both his recent comments and performance suggest, then we can hope for steadier production to close out the season rather than the extreme ups and downs of the first eight weeks.
Because combining the ups with the downs, he's still the ninth-best oufeidler in Head-to-Head points leagues. You'd give up the extreme highs of the first six weeks for that kind of production year-round.