By the numbers: RC/27 projections for 1Bs and 3Bs

In my first two columns, some of the analysis featured a statistic called Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27). This is a measure that takes nearly every offensive event from a player's statistical profile into account. The resulting measure is an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would produce if it consisted of that player plus eight of his statistical clones. This is a useful metric for Fantasy owners, because it is based on many of the same factors that are associated with high Fantasy scores for both hitters and pitchers.

This is the first in a series of RC/27 projections for 2008. Below is a ranking of all major league first basemen and third basemen who are expected to receive regular playing time this season, or at least have an opportunity to win a full-time job. The three-year trend of actual RC/27 scores from 2005 to 2007 is also included. Bear in mind that some players' past scores are based on a small number of plate appearances and may not be good indicators of future performance. The difference in sample sizes is accounted for in the 2008 projections.

These projections can be useful in preparing your draft strategy. Starting with the first basemen, you can see that Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are at the head of the class, and that projected performance of the remaining first basemen drops off pretty quickly once they are out of the draft pool. Mark Teixeira and Carlos Pena are still substantially better than the remaining options, and they are worth targeting if they are still available. Once they are off the board, let the other owners take the Todd Heltons and Justin Morneaus. There will be little difference between these players and not-quite-superstars like Joey Votto, James Loney and Kevin Youkilis.

As with the first basemen, there is a small elite among third basemen. In fact, Alex Rodriguez is in a class by himself. David Wright, Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones represent the next tier, and then the dropoff is steep. Whereas the clustering among the first basemen occurs at the sub-8.0 level, third basemen are bunched up once projected RC/27 dips below 7.0. If Edwin Encarnacion, Garrett Atkins or Hank Blalock is the top third baseman remaining, grab him or be prepared to move on to another position. It’s not worth using a pick on Troy Glaus or Ryan Zimmerman when there are nearly comparable players who will be available later in the draft.

Next week: RC/27 projections for middle infielders.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.