Bryce Harper has gotten his sophomore season with the Nationals off to a dramatic start, homering in his first two at-bats against the Marlins' Ricky Nolasco. I projected Harper for a total of 26 home runs this year, expecting that he may not be able to exceed the 13 percent home run-to-flyball (HR/FB) ratio that he put up as a rookie.
Then again, Harper hasn't been much of a flyball hitter throughout his brief professional career, and last year, his flyball rate was just 33 percent. Even if he can't raise an already impressive HR/FB ratio, Harper can exceed 30 homers just by hitting the ball in the air more frequently. There is certainly room for him to exceed what could have been a conservative estimate.