Week 12 college football picks at DraftKings: This Big Ten parlay with Iowa, Penn State, Washington pays 10-1

No. 17 USC vs. No. 21 Iowa will be the only ranked matchup in the Big Ten this week and it will be a classic matchup of a high-powered offense against a team predicated on defense and special teams. USC ranks second in the nation in total offense and seventh in scoring while Iowa ranks fifth in the nation in scoring defense and has scored three returns touchdowns this season. The latest Week 12 college football odds from DraftKings list USC as 7-point favorites, but Iowa money line (+205) is one of the SportsLine Projection Model's top college football picks. It's also backing Penn State (-7.5) vs. Michigan State and Washington (-16.5) vs. Purdue for a DraftKings Big Ten parlay that pays over 10-1 this week.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Three Big Ten betting picks for CFB Week 12 (odds subject to change): 

• Iowa money line vs. USC (+205)
• Penn State -7.5 vs. Michigan State (-105)
• Washington -16.5 vs. Purdue (-115)

Combining the model's three picks into a CFB parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +1013 (risk $100 to win $1013).

Iowa money line vs. USC (+205, DraftKings)

The entire Kirk Ferentz era has been filled with complaints about Iowa being behind the times offensively, but he's built a program with a knack for making opponents play on his terms. The Hawkeyes have held every team they've played so far this season below their scoring average for the season, and Iowa State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Oregon were all held double-digits below theirs. Meanwhile, USC has benefited from a rather soft Big Ten schedule thus far and has turned the ball over 10 times in its last six games. That won't bode well against Iowa, which is why the model predicts the Hawkeyes win in 43% of simulations while this price implies a 33% chance to win.

Penn State -7.5 vs. Michigan State (-105, DraftKings)

The Nittany Lions haven't received an interim head coaching bump, with Penn State going 0-3 since Terry Smith took over for James Franklin. However, they have covered the spread in two of those three games and both of those covers came against ranked opponents (Iowa and Indiana). Meanwhile, Michigan State has lost six in a row and is winless in the Big Ten. The model predicts that Penn State covers in 64% of simulations.

Washington -16.5 vs. Purdue (-115, DraftKings)

Washington cracked the top 25 last week and then lost to a Wisconsin in a game where the Badgers' leading passer was their punter. That's the sort of embarrassment that you want to erase from your mind as quickly as possible and Purdue is an ideal opportunity to do so. The Boilermakers haven't won a Big Ten game since Nov. 25, 2023 against Indiana (pre-Curt Cignetti). The model predicts that the Huskies cover in 59% of simulations.