USF vs. UTSA prediction, odds, line, time: Week 11 college football picks by proven model

The South Florida Bulls will look to stay in the mix for the American Athletic Conference championship when they take on the UTSA Roadrunners in a key matchup on Thursday night. UTSA is coming off a 48-26 win over Tulane on Oct. 30, while USF will look to rebound from a 31-24 loss at Memphis on Oct. 25. The Roadrunners (4-4, 2-2 AAC), who are eighth in the league, are 1-3 on the road this season. The Bulls (6-2, 3-1 AAC), who are tied for fourth in the American, are 4-0 on their home field.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is at 7:30 p.m. ET. UTSA won the only previous meeting between the teams with a 49-21 triumph in 2023. The Bulls are 14-point favorites in the latest USF vs. UTSA odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 67.5 via SportsLine consensus, making it the highest of college football Week 11. USF is at -610 on the money line (risk $610 to win $100), while UTSA is at +445 (risk $100 to win $445). Before making any UTSA vs. South Florida picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UTSA vs. South Florida. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for South Florida vs. UTSA:

Why South Florida can cover

Senior quarterback Byrum Brown guides the Bulls' offense. In eight starts, he has completed 154 of 245 passes for 1,964 yards (62.9%) and 17 touchdowns with six interceptions for a 148.2 rating. He has also rushed 120 times for 596 yards (5.0 average) and eight touchdowns. In the loss at Memphis, he completed 26 of 43 passes for 269 yards and one touchdown with one interception. He also rushed 21 times for 121 yards and two scores. The model projects a huge game through both the air and on the ground for Brown as he's forecasted for over 325 yards of total offense.

Among the top threats in the passing game is freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Koger. In just four games, he has 17 receptions for 337 yards and five touchdowns. In the loss to Memphis, he caught five passes for 78 yards and a score. He had four receptions for 94 yards and two touchdowns in a 63-36 win at North Texas on Oct. 10. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why UTSA can cover

Junior quarterback Owen McCown powers the Roadrunners. He is coming off a season-best performance in the win over Tulane. In that contest, he completed 31 of 33 passes (93.9%) for 370 yards and four touchdowns. He completed 15 of 21 passes for 236 yards and three touchdowns in a 61-13 win over Rice on Oct. 11. For the season, he has completed 168 of 249 passes (67.5%) for 1,680 yards and 17 touchdowns with four interceptions.

Leading the UTSA ground attack is senior running back Robert Henry Jr. In eight games, he has rushed 120 times for 955 yards (8.0 average) and nine touchdowns. He also has 15 receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns. In a 55-17 loss at North Texas, he carried 12 times for 138 yards (11.5 average) and one touchdown. He carried 21 times for 144 yards and one touchdown, and caught two passes for 76 yards and a score in a 17-16 win at Colorado State on Sept. 20. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make UTSA vs. South Florida picks

SportsLine's model is going Under on the total, projecting 65 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins UTSA vs. South Florida, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UTSA vs. South Florida spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.